Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00
13d 13h to kick-offAPO Levadiakos – NPS Volos
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- APO Levadiakos
- 42%
- Draw
- 33%
- NPS Volos
- 25%
| APO Levadiakos | Draw | NPS Volos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.37 | 3.08 | 3.94 |
- Total goals
- 2.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans APO Levadiakos
42% APO Levadiakos to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 12th
- APO Levadiakos attack v NPS Volos defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 12th
- APO Levadiakos defence v NPS Volos attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.77 vs -0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.31 – 0.99
- APO Levadiakos v NPS Volos
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | APO Levadiakos | NPS Volos |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.62 · 13th | (better) 0.93 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.41 · 8th | 1.53 · 11th |
| xGD / match | -0.79 · 13th | (better) -0.60 · 10th |
| xPts / match | 0.71 · 13th | (better) 0.94 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.77 | (better) -0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- APO Levadiakos clean sheet
- 34%
- APO Levadiakos 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 1:0
- 10.9%
- 0:0
- 10.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- APO Levadiakos sample
- 20 matches
- NPS Volos sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · APO Levadiakos
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · NPS Volos
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.