PS Kalamata 3:1 NPS Volos: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Super League Greece

PS Kalamata Home 2.25 xG · 15 shots

NPS Volos Away 0.76 xG · 11 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

PS Kalamata were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was PS Kalamata's attack: 2.25 xG against 1.38 projected (+0.87).

Goals

26' Matías González NPS Volos · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
59' Erik Hamza PS Kalamata · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
84' Jovanny Bolívar PS Kalamata · 0.04 xG chance 2–1
90' Erik Hamza PS Kalamata · 0.22 xG chance 3–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

PS Kalamata: 44% What happened
Draw: 32%
NPS Volos: 24%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

PS Kalamata 1.38 2.25 +0.87

NPS Volos 1.00 0.76 -0.24

PS Kalamata produced 0.87 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

PS Kalamata NPS Volos

Shots: 15; 11
On target: 6; 5
Inside the box: 12; 7
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.88; 0.55
Set-piece xG: 0.40; 0.18
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.26 for PS Kalamata and 0.76 for NPS Volos.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 3.01 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

PS Kalamata
NPS Volos
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

PS Kalamata

0.96 xG created 1.80 xGA

L 1.41 created, 2.69 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 1.02 created, 2.46 conceded against Panetolikos
D 0.46 created, 0.24 conceded against Atromitos Athens

NPS Volos

0.80 xG created 1.48 xGA

L 0.54 created, 2.17 conceded against APO Levadiakos
L 0.42 created, 1.40 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 1.34 created, 1.79 conceded against OFI Crete
L 0.91 created, 1.40 conceded against OFI Crete
D 1.19 created, 0.48 conceded against Iraklis 1908
D 0.41 created, 1.62 conceded against Olympiacos FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged5 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on PS Kalamata against NPS Volos before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NPS Volos not to score	3.25	+10.9%	Lost
PS Kalamata to win	2.50	+10.2%	Won
NPS Volos at most 1 goal	1.44	+6.5%	Won
Both teams to score	2.00	+6.1%	Won
PS Kalamata 2+ goals	2.50	+3.0%	Won
Draw	3.20	+1.4%	Lost
PS Kalamata to score	1.30	+0.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PS Kalamata	44.1%	37.7%	+6.4 pp	2.27
Draw	31.7%	29.5%	+2.2 pp	3.16
NPS Volos	24.2%	32.8%	−8.6 pp	4.13

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PS Kalamata to score	77.7%	72.3%	+5.3 pp	1.29
PS Kalamata not to score	22.3%	27.7%	−5.3 pp	4.47
NPS Volos to score	65.9%	70.9%	−5.0 pp	1.52
NPS Volos not to score	34.1%	29.1%	+5.0 pp	2.93
Both teams to score	53.0%	46.7%	+6.4 pp	1.89
Both teams not to score	47.0%	53.3%	−6.4 pp	2.13
PS Kalamata 2+ goals	41.2%	37.5%	+3.7 pp	2.43
PS Kalamata at most 1 goal	58.8%	62.5%	−3.7 pp	1.70
NPS Volos 2+ goals	26.2%	35.5%	−9.3 pp	3.81
NPS Volos at most 1 goal	73.8%	64.5%	+9.3 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	73.0%	70.9%	+2.0 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	27.0%	29.1%	−2.0 pp	3.70
Over 2.5 goals	43.2%	46.1%	−2.9 pp	2.31
Under 2.5 goals	56.8%	53.9%	+2.9 pp	1.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
PS Kalamata sample: 3 matches
NPS Volos sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

PS Kalamata has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.