Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeAtromitos Athens 1:2 AE Kifisia
Atromitos Athens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. AE Kifisia won 2–1. The biggest difference was AE Kifisia's attack: 1.72 xG against 1.05 projected (+0.67).
Goals
- 63' Jorge Pombo AE Kifisia · 0.26 xG chance 0–1
- 75' Samuel Moutoussamy Atromitos Athens · 0.22 xG chance 1–1
- 85' Jorge Pombo (pen.) AE Kifisia · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Atromitos Athens
- 35%
- Draw
- 34%
- AE Kifisia
- 31% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
AE Kifisia produced 0.67 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 6
- On target
- 4
- 3
- Inside the box
- 10
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.30
- Open play xG
- 1.08
- 0.92
- Set-piece xG
- 0.09
- 0.03
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.19 for Atromitos Athens and 0.93 for AE Kifisia.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
20 shots · 2.94 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Atromitos Athens
- AE Kifisia
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.32 xG created 1.27 xGA
1.19 xG created 1.15 xGA
- L 1.29 created, 1.61 conceded against Atromitos Athens
- D 0.44 created, 1.69 conceded against Asteras Aktor
- W 1.83 created, 1.97 conceded against AE Larisa
- D 1.11 created, 0.42 conceded against AEK Athens
- L 1.10 created, 0.67 conceded against OFI Crete
- D 1.38 created, 0.53 conceded against APO Levadiakos
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AE Kifisia to win | 3.70 | +14.5% | Won |
| Draw | 3.10 | +6.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | +4.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos Athens | 34.8% | 44.5% | −9.8 pp | 2.88 |
| Draw | 34.3% | 30.2% | +4.1 pp | 2.92 |
| AE Kifisia | 30.9% | 25.3% | +5.7 pp | 3.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 48.0% | +1.8 pp | 2.01 |
| Both teams not to score | 50.2% | 52.0% | −1.8 pp | 1.99 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% | 68.7% | −0.6 pp | 1.47 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 31.3% | +0.6 pp | 3.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.2% | 43.7% | −6.5 pp | 2.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 56.3% | +6.5 pp | 1.59 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Atromitos Athens sample
- 20 matches
- AE Kifisia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.