Iraklis 1908 1:1 Atromitos Athens: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · Super League Greece

Iraklis 1908 Home 0.69 xG · 10 shots

Atromitos Athens Away 1.47 xG · 10 shots

11 Atromitos Athens had the better chances, but it finished level

Iraklis 1908 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Iraklis 1908's attack: 0.69 xG against 1.18 projected (−0.49). Atromitos Athens produced 1.47 xG against 1.01 projected (+0.46).

Goals

21' Sotiris Tsiloulis Atromitos Athens · 0.49 xG chance 0–1
73' Pedro Marques Iraklis 1908 · 0.29 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Iraklis 1908: 38%
Draw: 34% What happened
Atromitos Athens: 29%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Iraklis 1908 1.18 0.69 -0.49

Atromitos Athens 1.01 1.47 +0.46

Iraklis 1908 produced 0.49 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Iraklis 1908 Atromitos Athens

Shots: 10; 10
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 6; 7
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.66; 1.48
Set-piece xG: 0.01; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.69 for Iraklis 1908 and 1.47 for Atromitos Athens.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 2.15 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Iraklis 1908
Atromitos Athens
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Iraklis 1908

0.59 xG created 1.41 xGA

L 0.38 created, 2.06 conceded against AEK Athens
D 0.48 created, 1.19 conceded against NPS Volos
W 0.92 created, 0.99 conceded against Asteras Aktor

Atromitos Athens

1.35 xG created 1.37 xGA

W 1.61 created, 1.29 conceded against AE Kifisia
L 1.88 created, 1.37 conceded against AE Larisa
W 2.71 created, 0.29 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
L 0.30 created, 3.17 conceded against Olympiacos FC
L 1.33 created, 1.61 conceded against PAOK
D 0.24 created, 0.46 conceded against PS Kalamata

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Iraklis 1908 against Atromitos Athens before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.25	+9.8%	Won
Atromitos Athens not to score	3.25	+8.6%	Lost
Iraklis 1908 to win	2.88	+8.1%	Lost
Atromitos Athens at most 1 goal	1.44	+5.5%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.65	+2.3%	Won
Iraklis 1908 to score	1.40	+1.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Iraklis 1908	37.6%	32.7%	+4.9 pp	2.66
Draw	33.8%	28.9%	+4.9 pp	2.96
Atromitos Athens	28.6%	38.4%	−9.8 pp	3.50

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Iraklis 1908 to score	72.2%	66.3%	+5.9 pp	1.39
Iraklis 1908 not to score	27.8%	33.7%	−5.9 pp	3.59
Atromitos Athens to score	66.6%	70.9%	−4.3 pp	1.50
Atromitos Athens not to score	33.4%	29.1%	+4.3 pp	2.99
Both teams to score	50.0%	48.0%	+2.0 pp	2.00
Both teams not to score	50.0%	52.0%	−2.0 pp	2.00
Iraklis 1908 2+ goals	33.6%	33.7%	−0.2 pp	2.98
Iraklis 1908 at most 1 goal	66.4%	66.3%	+0.2 pp	1.51
Atromitos Athens 2+ goals	26.9%	35.5%	−8.6 pp	3.71
Atromitos Athens at most 1 goal	73.1%	64.5%	+8.6 pp	1.37
Over 1.5 goals	68.8%	68.7%	+0.0 pp	1.45
Under 1.5 goals	31.2%	31.3%	−0.0 pp	3.20
Over 2.5 goals	38.0%	42.9%	−4.8 pp	2.63
Under 2.5 goals	62.0%	57.1%	+4.8 pp	1.61

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Iraklis 1908 sample: 3 matches
Atromitos Athens sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Iraklis 1908 has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.