Atromitos Athens 1:1 PS Kalamata: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Super League Greece

Atromitos Athens Home 0.24 xG · 10 shots

PS Kalamata Away 0.46 xG · 13 shots

11 The chances were evenly matched

Atromitos Athens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Atromitos Athens's attack: 0.24 xG against 1.80 projected (−1.56). PS Kalamata produced 0.46 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.52).

Goals

1' Samuel Moutoussamy Atromitos Athens · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
52' Dimitrios Stavropoulos (o.g.) PS Kalamata · 0.10 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Atromitos Athens: 56%
Draw: 27% What happened
PS Kalamata: 17%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Atromitos Athens 1.80 0.24 -1.56

PS Kalamata 0.98 0.46 -0.52

Atromitos Athens produced 1.56 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Atromitos Athens PS Kalamata

Shots: 10; 13
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 4; 8
xG per shot: 0.02; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.18; 0.41
Set-piece xG: 0.06; 0.14
Penalties: —; —

PS Kalamata's shots add up to 0.55 xG; the published figure is 0.46.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 0.79 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Atromitos Athens
PS Kalamata
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Atromitos Athens

1.46 xG created 1.47 xGA

L 0.95 created, 1.08 conceded against Panetolikos
W 1.61 created, 1.29 conceded against AE Kifisia
L 1.88 created, 1.37 conceded against AE Larisa
W 2.71 created, 0.29 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
L 0.30 created, 3.17 conceded against Olympiacos FC
L 1.33 created, 1.61 conceded against PAOK

PS Kalamata

1.21 xG created 2.58 xGA

L 1.41 created, 2.69 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 1.02 created, 2.46 conceded against Panetolikos

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Atromitos Athens against PS Kalamata before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.05	+10.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.91	+9.4%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+7.1%	Won
Atromitos Athens to win	1.85	+3.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Atromitos Athens	56.1%	50.6%	+5.5 pp	1.78
Draw	26.6%	26.0%	+0.6 pp	3.76
PS Kalamata	17.3%	23.4%	−6.1 pp	5.77

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.3%	50.0%	+7.3 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	42.7%	50.0%	−7.3 pp	2.34
Over 1.5 goals	80.4%	70.9%	+9.5 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.6%	29.1%	−9.5 pp	5.09
Over 2.5 goals	53.9%	46.1%	+7.8 pp	1.86
Under 2.5 goals	46.1%	53.9%	−7.8 pp	2.17

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Atromitos Athens sample: 20 matches
PS Kalamata sample: 2 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Warnings

PS Kalamata has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.