xgEdge

Expected goals

Panathinaikos expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Super League Greece · after 4 matches · updated 4 Oct

Panathinaikos's attacking and defensive expected goals in Super League Greece 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Panathinaikos xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.13 xG per match
#1/14
Attack (xG per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Panathinaikos 2.13
#2 AEK Athens 2.02
#3 PAOK 1.85
#4 Olympiacos FC 1.81
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 1.52
#6 AE Kifisia 1.33
#7 PS Kalamata 1.26
#8 Asteras Aktor 1.04
#9 OFI Crete 1.04
#10 NPS Volos 0.93
#11 Atromitos Athens 0.91
#12 Panetolikos 0.89
#13 APO Levadiakos 0.62
#14 Iraklis 1908 0.57
League avg
1.27
Total
8.50 4 matches
Defence
0.81 xGA per match
#3/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.56
#2 AE Kifisia 0.70
#3 Panathinaikos 0.81
#4 AEK Athens 0.95
#5 OFI Crete 1.18
#6 PAOK 1.20
#7 Asteras Aktor 1.24
#8 APO Levadiakos 1.41
#9 Iraklis 1908 1.45
#10 Atromitos Athens 1.53
#11 NPS Volos 1.53
#12 PS Kalamata 1.57
#13 Panetolikos 1.59
#14 Aris Thessaloniki 1.81
League avg
1.27
Total
3.25 4 matches
xG difference
+1.31 xGD per match
#1/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Panathinaikos +1.31
#2 Olympiacos FC +1.25
#3 AEK Athens +1.07
#4 PAOK +0.65
#5 AE Kifisia +0.63
#6 OFI Crete -0.14
#7 Asteras Aktor -0.20
#8 Aris Thessaloniki -0.28
#9 PS Kalamata -0.31
#10 NPS Volos -0.60
#11 Atromitos Athens -0.62
#12 Panetolikos -0.70
#13 APO Levadiakos -0.79
#14 Iraklis 1908 -0.88
League avg
0.00
Total
+5.25 4 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.17 xPts per match
#2/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 2.25
#2 Panathinaikos 2.17
#3 AEK Athens 1.96
#4 AE Kifisia 1.92
#5 PAOK 1.88
#6 Aris Thessaloniki 1.39
#7 Asteras Aktor 1.22
#8 OFI Crete 1.22
#9 PS Kalamata 1.20
#10 Atromitos Athens 1.02
#11 Panetolikos 1.02
#12 NPS Volos 0.94
#13 APO Levadiakos 0.71
#14 Iraklis 1908 0.65
League avg
1.38
Total
8.66 vs 15 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 4 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 4 of 5 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

Panathinaikos's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +1.31 per match, driven by elite shot volume at about average chance quality. After only 4 matches, treat every figure here as provisional.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.32 xG from penalties
9 8.50 +0.50 Too early to read
Goals conceded vs xGA
1 3.25 -2.25 Too early to read
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
12 8.66 +3.34 Too early to read

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Panathinaikos are 0.50 goals above their xG after 4 matches. The gap was widest at +1.22, against Panetolikos on Sun 13/09.

Goals
9
xG
8.50
Gap
+0.50
Mon 31/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.91 +1.19 +1.22 +0.50 +0.91 +0.28 +0.03 -0.72 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Panathinaikos: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 31/08 APO Levadiakos 2 1.09 +0.91 +0.91
Sun 06/09 PAOK 3 2.72 +0.28 +1.19
Sun 13/09 Panetolikos 3 2.97 +0.03 +1.22
Sun 20/09 PS Kalamata 1 1.72 -0.72 +0.50

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Panathinaikos xG trend

Current form +0.91 npxGD per match

All 4 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 4 matches.

npxG · last 4
1.80
npxGA · last 4
0.88
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.12 Mon 31/08 +0.91 Sun 06/09 +2.07 Sun 13/09 +0.56 Sun 20/09 +0.92 season avg
Panathinaikos: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 31/08 APO Levadiakos 1.35 1.23 +0.12 +0.12
Sun 06/09 PAOK 1.93 1.02 +0.91 +0.52
Sun 13/09 Panetolikos 2.18 0.11 +2.07 +1.03
Sun 20/09 PS Kalamata 1.72 1.16 +0.56 +0.92

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.80 npxG and 0.88 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 12 hardest of 14 in Super League Greece
−0.14 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.14 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 12 hardest of 14

  1. PS Kalamata Away −0.21
  2. Panetolikos Home −0.52
  3. AE Kifisia Home +0.01
  4. PAOK Home +0.22
  5. APO Levadiakos Away −0.21

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Panathinaikos shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. Panathinaikos take 18.0 shots a match (league 12.5) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #2 in Super League Greece for volume and #6 for quality. 63% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 8% of their npxG (league 23%).

Attack

Shot volume
18.0 shots per match
#2/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 19.2
#2 Panathinaikos 18.0
#3 AEK Athens 17.2
#4 Aris Thessaloniki 16.2
#5 PAOK 12.2
=6 Asteras Aktor 11.6
=6 Atromitos Athens 11.6
=6 PS Kalamata 11.6
#9 AE Kifisia 11.5
#10 NPS Volos 11.2
#11 OFI Crete 10.8
#12 APO Levadiakos 9.2
#13 Panetolikos 8.8
#14 Iraklis 1908 7.8
League avg
12.5
Total
54 shots from 3 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#6/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Panetolikos 0.13
#2 PAOK 0.13
#3 PS Kalamata 0.11
#4 AEK Athens 0.11
#5 AE Kifisia 0.10
#6 Panathinaikos 0.09
#7 OFI Crete 0.08
#8 NPS Volos 0.08
#9 Olympiacos FC 0.08
#10 Asteras Aktor 0.08
#11 Aris Thessaloniki 0.08
#12 Atromitos Athens 0.07
#13 Iraklis 1908 0.07
#14 APO Levadiakos 0.07
League avg
0.09
Total
5.00 npxG from 54 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
8.7 shots per match
#2/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AE Kifisia 8.3
#2 Panathinaikos 8.7
#3 Olympiacos FC 9.0
#4 AEK Athens 10.6
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 11.4
#6 NPS Volos 12.4
#7 Asteras Aktor 12.6
#8 APO Levadiakos 13.0
#9 PAOK 13.2
#10 Atromitos Athens 13.6
#11 OFI Crete 14.0
#12 Panetolikos 14.5
#13 PS Kalamata 14.8
#14 Iraklis 1908 17.6
League avg
12.5
Total
26 shots allowed from 3 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#13/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.06
#2 OFI Crete 0.07
#3 Iraklis 1908 0.07
#4 PAOK 0.07
#5 AE Kifisia 0.09
#6 Panetolikos 0.09
#7 NPS Volos 0.09
#8 Atromitos Athens 0.09
#9 AEK Athens 0.09
#10 PS Kalamata 0.10
#11 Asteras Aktor 0.10
#12 APO Levadiakos 0.10
#13 Panathinaikos 0.13
#14 Aris Thessaloniki 0.15
League avg
0.09
Total
3.41 npxGA from 26 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

63% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 34 of 54 shots over 3 matches

Early-season figure: after 3 matches, the share can move quickly.

Covers 3 of 4 matches with xG.

Shots allowed, location

62% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 16 of 26 shots allowed over 3 matches

Early-season figure: after 3 matches, the share can move quickly.

Covers 3 of 4 matches with xG.

Where the npxG comes from

92% open play · 8% set pieces

League avg 23% set pieces

From 0.6 of 7.1 npxG over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

64% open play · 36% set pieces

League avg 23% set pieces

From 1.3 of 3.6 npxG allowed over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shot counts cover 3 of 4 matches.

How the shot figures are made →

Panathinaikos home and away xG

Panathinaikos per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 3 2 with xG 2
xG / match 2.85 1.41
xGA / match 0.57 1.06
xGD / match +2.28 +0.35
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.70 1.64

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Panathinaikos match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
3 2 with xG
xG / match
2.85
xGA / match
0.57
xGD / match
+2.28
Points
9 of 9
  1. Sun 13/09 Panetolikos H xG 2.97 P xGA 0.11 xGD +2.86
  2. Thu 10/09 AE Kifisia H
  3. Sun 06/09 PAOK H xG 2.72 P xGA 1.02 xGD +1.70

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Panathinaikos in Super League Greece

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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