Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 18:00
28d 4h to kick-offPanathinaikos – AEK Athens
Model updated 4 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Panathinaikos
- 36%
- Draw
- 32%
- AEK Athens
- 32%
| Panathinaikos | Draw | AEK Athens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.77 | 3.16 | 3.09 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Panathinaikos to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 2nd
- Panathinaikos attack v AEK Athens defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 2nd
- Panathinaikos defence v AEK Athens attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.40 vs +0.92
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.29 – 1.22
- Panathinaikos v AEK Athens
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Panathinaikos | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.13 · 1st from 4 matches | 2.02 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.81 · 3rd from 4 matches | 0.95 · 4th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.31 · 1st from 4 matches | +1.07 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.17 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.96 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.40 | (better) +0.92 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Panathinaikos clean sheet
- 27%
- Panathinaikos 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.2%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Panathinaikos sample
- 20 matches
- AEK Athens sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Panathinaikos
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · AEK Athens
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.