Alanyaspor 2:2 Göztepe: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Süper Lig

Alanyaspor Home 1.72 xG · 20 shots

Göztepe Away 1.79 xG · 14 shots

22 The chances were evenly matched

Alanyaspor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Göztepe's attack: 1.79 xG against 1.20 projected (+0.59). Alanyaspor produced 1.72 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.43).

Goals

28' Rhaldney Göztepe · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
63' Paolo Fernandes Alanyaspor · 0.13 xG chance 1–1
73' Juan Santos da Silva (pen.) Göztepe · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
75' Gaius Makouta Alanyaspor · 0.53 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Alanyaspor: 36%
Draw: 32% What happened
Göztepe: 32%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Alanyaspor 1.29 1.72 +0.43

Göztepe 1.20 1.79 +0.59

Göztepe produced 0.59 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Alanyaspor Göztepe

Shots: 20; 14
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 16; 10
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.86; 0.39
Set-piece xG: 0.84; 0.56
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.70 for Alanyaspor and 0.95 for Göztepe.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 3.47 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Alanyaspor
Göztepe
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Alanyaspor

1.22 xG created 1.41 xGA

W 2.05 created, 1.88 conceded against Kayserispor
L 0.74 created, 1.78 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
D 1.25 created, 1.28 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 0.54 created, 0.74 conceded against Beşiktaş
L 0.66 created, 1.48 conceded against Eyüpspor
W 2.07 created, 1.28 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor

Göztepe

1.97 xG created 2.00 xGA

W 2.08 created, 0.77 conceded against Gaziantep FK
L 2.20 created, 2.11 conceded against Samsunspor
D 1.71 created, 2.80 conceded against Samsunspor
L 1.92 created, 1.56 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
L 0.63 created, 2.87 conceded against Galatasaray
L 3.26 created, 1.88 conceded against Gaziantep FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Alanyaspor: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Alanyaspor against Göztepe before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+7.9%	Won
Alanyaspor at most 1 goal	1.67	+3.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Alanyaspor	36.5%	43.0%	−6.5 pp	2.74
Draw	31.7%	27.2%	+4.5 pp	3.15
Göztepe	31.8%	29.8%	+2.0 pp	3.15

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Alanyaspor to score	75.2%	75.0%	+0.2 pp	1.33
Alanyaspor not to score	24.8%	25.0%	−0.2 pp	4.03
Göztepe to score	72.7%	68.7%	+3.9 pp	1.38
Göztepe not to score	27.3%	31.3%	−3.9 pp	3.66
Both teams to score	56.5%	53.7%	+2.8 pp	1.77
Both teams not to score	43.5%	46.3%	−2.8 pp	2.30
Alanyaspor 2+ goals	37.8%	44.3%	−6.5 pp	2.65
Alanyaspor at most 1 goal	62.2%	55.7%	+6.5 pp	1.61
Göztepe 2+ goals	34.2%	33.7%	+0.4 pp	2.93
Göztepe at most 1 goal	65.8%	66.3%	−0.4 pp	1.52
Over 1.5 goals	75.3%	72.3%	+3.0 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	24.7%	27.7%	−3.0 pp	4.05
Over 2.5 goals	46.3%	47.4%	−1.1 pp	2.16
Under 2.5 goals	53.7%	52.6%	+1.1 pp	1.86

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Alanyaspor sample: 20 matches
Göztepe sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.