Amed Sportif Faaliyetler 2:1 Trabzonspor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Süper Lig

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler Home 2.69 xG · 17 shots

Trabzonspor Away 0.93 xG · 8 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Amed Sportif Faaliyetler's attack: 2.69 xG against 1.21 projected (+1.48).

Goals

11' Mohamed Salah Trabzonspor · 0.43 xG chance 0–1
45' Yira Collins Sor Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.72 xG chance 1–1
90' Gift Orban Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.70 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler: 36% What happened
Draw: 33%
Trabzonspor: 31%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler 1.21 2.69 +1.48

Trabzonspor 1.12 0.93 -0.19

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler produced 1.48 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler Trabzonspor

Shots: 17; 8
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 12; 7
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.64; 0.74
Set-piece xG: 1.49; 0.12
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.19 for Amed Sportif Faaliyetler and 0.85 for Trabzonspor.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 3.81 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
Trabzonspor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler

1.05 xG created 0.77 xGA

W 1.50 created, 0.23 conceded against Erzurumspor FK
L 0.60 created, 1.31 conceded against Kocaelispor

Trabzonspor

1.21 xG created 1.72 xGA

L 2.11 created, 1.18 conceded against Konyaspor
D 0.79 created, 1.54 conceded against Göztepe
W 0.69 created, 2.22 conceded against Beşiktaş
L 0.57 created, 1.58 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
D 0.85 created, 1.86 conceded against Kasımpaşa
W 2.27 created, 1.95 conceded against Başakşehir FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Amed Sportif Faaliyetler against Trabzonspor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Trabzonspor not to score	4.50	+32.3%	Lost
Trabzonspor at most 1 goal	1.83	+26.0%	Won
Draw	3.75	+23.6%	Lost
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler to win	3.40	+21.9%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+21.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.00	+11.0%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.20	+2.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler	35.8%	27.7%	+8.1 pp	2.79
Draw	33.0%	25.1%	+7.8 pp	3.03
Trabzonspor	31.2%	47.1%	−15.9 pp	3.20

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler to score	73.2%	70.9%	+2.3 pp	1.37
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler not to score	26.8%	29.1%	−2.3 pp	3.73
Trabzonspor to score	70.6%	79.2%	−8.6 pp	1.42
Trabzonspor not to score	29.4%	20.8%	+8.6 pp	3.40
Both teams to score	53.6%	57.7%	−4.0 pp	1.86
Both teams not to score	46.4%	42.3%	+4.0 pp	2.16
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler 2+ goals	34.8%	35.5%	−0.7 pp	2.87
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler at most 1 goal	65.2%	64.5%	+0.7 pp	1.53
Trabzonspor 2+ goals	31.3%	50.0%	−18.7 pp	3.20
Trabzonspor at most 1 goal	68.7%	50.0%	+18.7 pp	1.46
Over 1.5 goals	72.3%	76.6%	−4.3 pp	1.38
Under 1.5 goals	27.7%	23.4%	+4.3 pp	3.60
Over 2.5 goals	42.1%	55.3%	−13.2 pp	2.38
Under 2.5 goals	57.9%	44.7%	+13.2 pp	1.73

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler sample: 2 matches
Trabzonspor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.