Başakşehir FK 2:3 Galatasaray: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Friday, 04/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Süper Lig

Başakşehir FK Home 1.99 xG · 13 shots

Galatasaray Away 2.12 xG · 13 shots

23 The chances were evenly matched

Galatasaray were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Başakşehir FK's attack: 1.99 xG against 1.26 projected (+0.73). Galatasaray produced 2.12 xG against 1.54 projected (+0.58).

Goals

16' Victor Osimhen Galatasaray · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
66' Eldor Shomurodov (pen.) Başakşehir FK · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
71' Lucas Torreira Galatasaray · 0.50 xG chance 1–2
76' Davinson Sánchez (o.g.) Başakşehir FK · 0.10 xG chance 2–2
90' Gabriel Sara Galatasaray · 0.12 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Başakşehir FK: 28%
Draw: 29%
Galatasaray: 42% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Başakşehir FK 1.26 1.99 +0.73

Galatasaray 1.54 2.12 +0.58

Başakşehir FK produced 0.73 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Başakşehir FK Galatasaray

Shots: 13; 13
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 9; 7
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.71; 1.64
Set-piece xG: 0.30; 0.35
Penalties: 1; 0

Başakşehir FK's shots add up to 1.83 xG and Galatasaray's to 1.99; the published figures are 1.99 and 2.12.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 3.82 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Başakşehir FK
Galatasaray
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Başakşehir FK

1.85 xG created 1.23 xGA

L 0.89 created, 2.05 conceded against Fenerbahçe
W 3.31 created, 0.32 conceded against Samsunspor
W 2.21 created, 0.63 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 1.96 created, 0.43 conceded against Kocaelispor
L 1.95 created, 2.27 conceded against Trabzonspor
D 0.76 created, 1.69 conceded against Kasımpaşa

Galatasaray

2.41 xG created 0.69 xGA

L 0.89 created, 1.37 conceded against Samsunspor
W 4.18 created, 0.38 conceded against Antalyaspor
L 0.55 created, 0.65 conceded against Kasımpaşa
D 2.90 created, 0.61 conceded against Çorum FK
W 3.08 created, 0.48 conceded against Erzurumspor FK
W 2.87 created, 0.63 conceded against Göztepe

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Başakşehir FK: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Başakşehir FK against Galatasaray before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Başakşehir FK to win	4.75	+35.3%	Lost
Galatasaray not to score	7.00	+31.7%	Lost
Galatasaray at most 1 goal	2.38	+25.9%	Lost
Draw	4.20	+23.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+22.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+13.7%	Lost
Başakşehir FK to score	1.36	+1.7%	Won
Başakşehir FK 2+ goals	2.75	+0.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Başakşehir FK	28.5%	19.7%	+8.8 pp	3.51
Draw	29.5%	22.3%	+7.2 pp	3.40
Galatasaray	42.1%	58.0%	−15.9 pp	2.38

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Başakşehir FK to score	74.5%	68.7%	+5.8 pp	1.34
Başakşehir FK not to score	25.5%	31.3%	−5.8 pp	3.93
Galatasaray to score	81.2%	86.4%	−5.2 pp	1.23
Galatasaray not to score	18.8%	13.6%	+5.2 pp	5.32
Both teams to score	62.2%	62.5%	−0.3 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	37.8%	37.5%	+0.3 pp	2.65
Başakşehir FK 2+ goals	36.6%	33.7%	+2.8 pp	2.73
Başakşehir FK at most 1 goal	63.4%	66.3%	−2.8 pp	1.58
Galatasaray 2+ goals	47.0%	60.8%	−13.8 pp	2.13
Galatasaray at most 1 goal	53.0%	39.2%	+13.8 pp	1.89
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	84.2%	−3.2 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	15.8%	+3.2 pp	5.28
Over 2.5 goals	54.6%	65.2%	−10.6 pp	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	45.4%	34.8%	+10.6 pp	2.20

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Başakşehir FK sample: 20 matches
Galatasaray sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.