Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeKasımpaşa 2:2 Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 37%. It finished 2–2. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 20' Güven Yalçın Kasımpaşa · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
- 52' Adrian Benedyczak Kasımpaşa · 0.11 xG chance 2–0
- 59' Gift Orban Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.01 xG chance 2–1
- 83' Gift Orban Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.43 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Kasımpaşa
- 30%
- Draw
- 37% What happened
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
- 33%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 14
- On target
- 7
- 4
- Inside the box
- 8
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.96
- 0.86
- Set-piece xG
- 0.02
- 0.27
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.98 for Kasımpaşa and 1.08 for Amed Sportif Faaliyetler.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 2.11 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Kasımpaşa
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.22 xG created 0.96 xGA
- D 0.85 created, 0.64 conceded against Kocaelispor
- L 1.98 created, 1.86 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
- W 0.65 created, 0.55 conceded against Galatasaray
- D 1.86 created, 0.85 conceded against Trabzonspor
- W 0.32 created, 1.11 conceded against Çorum FK
- D 1.69 created, 0.76 conceded against Başakşehir FK
1.60 xG created 0.82 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.00 | +23.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.65 | +19.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.20 | +19.1% | Won |
| Both teams not to score | 1.83 | +6.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasımpaşa | 29.9% | 37.6% | −7.7 pp | 3.34 |
| Draw | 37.2% | 28.8% | +8.4 pp | 2.69 |
| Amed Sportif Faaliyetler | 32.8% | 33.5% | −0.7 pp | 3.04 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 50.0% | −8.1 pp | 2.39 |
| Both teams not to score | 58.1% | 50.0% | +8.1 pp | 1.72 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.0% | 68.7% | −9.8 pp | 1.70 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 31.3% | +9.8 pp | 2.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.5% | 42.9% | −15.3 pp | 3.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 72.5% | 57.1% | +15.3 pp | 1.38 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kasımpaşa sample
- 20 matches
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler sample
- 3 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Warnings
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.