Kasımpaşa 0:0 Konyaspor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Kasımpaşa Home 0.59 xG · 13 shots

Konyaspor Away 1.22 xG · 11 shots

00 Konyaspor had the better chances, but it finished level

Kasımpaşa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Kasımpaşa's attack: 0.59 xG against 1.12 projected (−0.53). Konyaspor produced 1.22 xG against 0.90 projected (+0.32).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Kasımpaşa: 38%
Draw: 35% What happened
Konyaspor: 26%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Kasımpaşa 1.12 0.59 -0.53

Konyaspor 0.90 1.22 +0.32

Kasımpaşa produced 0.53 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Kasımpaşa Konyaspor

Shots: 13; 11
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 9; 8
xG per shot: 0.04; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.27; 0.43
Set-piece xG: 0.31; 0.75
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.56 for Kasımpaşa and 1.15 for Konyaspor.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 1.76 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Kasımpaşa
Konyaspor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Kasımpaşa

1.15 xG created 0.92 xGA

W 0.65 created, 0.55 conceded against Galatasaray
D 1.86 created, 0.85 conceded against Trabzonspor
W 0.32 created, 1.11 conceded against Çorum FK
D 1.69 created, 0.76 conceded against Başakşehir FK
D 1.04 created, 1.11 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
W 1.32 created, 1.16 conceded against Gençlerbirliği

Konyaspor

1.23 xG created 1.35 xGA

L 1.18 created, 1.40 conceded against Kayserispor
L 0.62 created, 1.52 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
L 2.15 created, 2.36 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 0.85 created, 0.76 conceded against Kocaelispor
L 1.56 created, 1.24 conceded against Erzurumspor FK
W 1.01 created, 0.83 conceded against Trabzonspor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Kasımpaşa: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged8 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Kasımpaşa against Konyaspor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 1.5 goals	3.40	+22.1%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.80	+21.2%	Won
Draw	3.20	+12.8%	Won
Konyaspor at most 1 goal	1.40	+8.8%	Won
Kasımpaşa at most 1 goal	1.53	+5.9%	Won
Konyaspor not to score	2.75	+4.0%	Won
Kasımpaşa not to score	3.50	+3.9%	Won
Both teams not to score	1.91	+3.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kasımpaşa	38.5%	39.7%	−1.2 pp	2.60
Draw	35.3%	29.2%	+6.1 pp	2.84
Konyaspor	26.3%	31.1%	−4.8 pp	3.81

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kasımpaşa to score	70.3%	73.1%	−2.8 pp	1.42
Kasımpaşa not to score	29.7%	26.9%	+2.8 pp	3.37
Konyaspor to score	62.2%	66.3%	−4.1 pp	1.61
Konyaspor not to score	37.8%	33.7%	+4.1 pp	2.64
Both teams to score	45.8%	51.5%	−5.7 pp	2.19
Both teams not to score	54.2%	48.5%	+5.7 pp	1.84
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals	30.9%	39.2%	−8.3 pp	3.23
Kasımpaşa at most 1 goal	69.1%	60.8%	+8.3 pp	1.45
Konyaspor 2+ goals	22.3%	33.7%	−11.5 pp	4.49
Konyaspor at most 1 goal	77.7%	66.3%	+11.5 pp	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	64.1%	72.3%	−8.3 pp	1.56
Under 1.5 goals	35.9%	27.7%	+8.3 pp	2.78
Over 2.5 goals	32.6%	47.4%	−14.7 pp	3.06
Under 2.5 goals	67.4%	52.6%	+14.7 pp	1.48

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Kasımpaşa sample: 20 matches
Konyaspor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.