Lyngby 0:4 Silkeborg IF: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Lyngby Home 0.30 xG · 7 shots

Silkeborg IF Away 0.95 xG · 13 shots

04 The scoreline reflected the chances

Lyngby were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. Silkeborg IF won 4–0. The biggest difference was Lyngby's attack: 0.30 xG against 1.80 projected (−1.50).

Goals

39' Alexander Priesborg Silkeborg IF · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
52' Oliver Ross Silkeborg IF · 0.14 xG chance 0–2
72' Villads Westh Silkeborg IF · 0.04 xG chance 0–3
85' Malthe Hansen Silkeborg IF · 0.30 xG chance 0–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lyngby: 55%
Draw: 27%
Silkeborg IF: 18% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lyngby 1.80 0.30 -1.50

Silkeborg IF 1.01 0.95 -0.06

Lyngby produced 1.50 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lyngby Silkeborg IF

Shots: 7; 13
On target: 2; 6
Inside the box: 4; 6
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.25; 0.86
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.30 for Lyngby and 0.95 for Silkeborg IF.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 1.29 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Lyngby
Silkeborg IF
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lyngby

1.77 xG created 1.40 xGA

L 1.85 created, 1.51 conceded against Randers FC
D 0.49 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Midtjylland
L 2.87 created, 0.76 conceded against AC Horsens
D 1.97 created, 1.75 conceded against Odense Boldklub
W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.87 created, 1.80 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold

Silkeborg IF

1.06 xG created 1.85 xGA

W 1.92 created, 1.14 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 0.22 created, 2.70 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
L 0.99 created, 2.14 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 1.11 created, 2.50 conceded against FC Midtjylland
D 1.23 created, 1.92 conceded against AGF
D 0.91 created, 0.71 conceded against Viborg FF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lyngby against Silkeborg IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Silkeborg IF not to score	3.50	+17.9%	Lost
Silkeborg IF at most 1 goal	1.53	+12.4%	Lost
Draw	4.10	+9.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.40	+8.8%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.50	+5.0%	Lost
Lyngby to win	1.85	+2.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lyngby	55.1%	50.5%	+4.6 pp	1.81
Draw	26.8%	22.8%	+4.0 pp	3.74
Silkeborg IF	18.1%	26.7%	−8.6 pp	5.52

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lyngby to score	85.7%	82.8%	+2.9 pp	1.17
Lyngby not to score	14.3%	17.2%	−2.9 pp	7.00
Silkeborg IF to score	66.3%	73.1%	−6.8 pp	1.51
Silkeborg IF not to score	33.7%	26.9%	+6.8 pp	2.97
Both teams to score	58.4%	60.8%	−2.4 pp	1.71
Both teams not to score	41.6%	39.2%	+2.4 pp	2.40
Lyngby 2+ goals	55.5%	55.7%	−0.2 pp	1.80
Lyngby at most 1 goal	44.5%	44.3%	+0.2 pp	2.25
Silkeborg IF 2+ goals	26.7%	39.2%	−12.6 pp	3.75
Silkeborg IF at most 1 goal	73.3%	60.8%	+12.6 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	80.9%	82.8%	−1.9 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.1%	17.2%	+1.9 pp	5.24
Over 2.5 goals	54.7%	61.0%	−6.3 pp	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	45.3%	39.0%	+6.3 pp	2.21

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lyngby sample: 8 matches
Silkeborg IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Lyngby has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.