Lyngby 1:1 Sønderjyske Fodbold: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Lyngby Home 1.87 xG · 19 shots

Sønderjyske Fodbold Away 1.80 xG · 18 shots

11 The chances were evenly matched

Lyngby were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Sønderjyske Fodbold's attack: 1.80 xG against 1.00 projected (+0.80).

Goals

6' Simon Colyn Lyngby · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
75' Ismaïl Seydi Sønderjyske Fodbold · 0.11 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lyngby: 59%
Draw: 25% What happened
Sønderjyske Fodbold: 16%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lyngby 1.94 1.87 -0.07

Sønderjyske Fodbold 1.00 1.80 +0.80

Sønderjyske Fodbold produced 0.80 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lyngby Sønderjyske Fodbold

Shots: 19; 18
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 8; 13
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.13; 0.50
Set-piece xG: 0.38; 0.64
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.51 for Lyngby and 1.14 for Sønderjyske Fodbold.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 2.65 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Lyngby
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lyngby

2.02 xG created 1.32 xGA

D 3.37 created, 1.35 conceded against AGF
L 1.85 created, 1.51 conceded against Randers FC
D 0.49 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Midtjylland
L 2.87 created, 0.76 conceded against AC Horsens
D 1.97 created, 1.75 conceded against Odense Boldklub
W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against Viborg FF

Sønderjyske Fodbold

0.80 xG created 2.01 xGA

L 0.59 created, 2.11 conceded against Odense Boldklub
D 0.62 created, 1.47 conceded against Viborg FF
L 0.92 created, 1.63 conceded against Brøndby IF
L 1.28 created, 1.97 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
L 0.78 created, 2.43 conceded against FC København
L 0.62 created, 2.42 conceded against AC Horsens

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lyngby against Sønderjyske Fodbold before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.10	+2.5%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.40	+0.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lyngby	59.0%	56.5%	+2.4 pp	1.70
Draw	25.0%	22.7%	+2.3 pp	4.00
Sønderjyske Fodbold	16.0%	20.7%	−4.7 pp	6.24

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lyngby to score	87.8%	85.4%	+2.4 pp	1.14
Lyngby not to score	12.2%	14.6%	−2.4 pp	8.20
Sønderjyske Fodbold to score	65.9%	64.5%	+1.4 pp	1.52
Sønderjyske Fodbold not to score	34.1%	35.5%	−1.4 pp	2.93
Both teams to score	59.3%	55.7%	+3.6 pp	1.69
Both teams not to score	40.7%	44.3%	−3.6 pp	2.46
Lyngby 2+ goals	59.9%	60.8%	−0.8 pp	1.67
Lyngby at most 1 goal	40.1%	39.2%	+0.8 pp	2.50
Sønderjyske Fodbold 2+ goals	26.3%	27.7%	−1.4 pp	3.81
Sønderjyske Fodbold at most 1 goal	73.7%	72.3%	+1.4 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	82.9%	81.1%	+1.9 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.1%	18.9%	−1.9 pp	5.86
Over 2.5 goals	58.0%	61.0%	−3.0 pp	1.72
Under 2.5 goals	42.0%	39.0%	+3.0 pp	2.38

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lyngby sample: 7 matches
Sønderjyske Fodbold sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Lyngby has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.