Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 14:00
Full timeSilkeborg IF 1:1 FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FC Midtjylland's attack: 2.50 xG against 1.50 projected (+1.00).
Goals
- 13' William Kirk Silkeborg IF · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
- 66' Stanley Iheanacho FC Midtjylland · 1.00 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Silkeborg IF
- 23%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- FC Midtjylland
- 47%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Midtjylland produced 1.00 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 15
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 10
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.17
- Open play xG
- 0.84
- 1.72
- Set-piece xG
- 0.29
- 0.81
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.11 for Silkeborg IF and 2.50 for FC Midtjylland.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.66 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Silkeborg IF
- FC Midtjylland
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.20 xG created 1.76 xGA
- L 1.46 created, 2.78 conceded against FC Fredericia
- D 1.09 created, 0.60 conceded against Randers FC
- L 1.52 created, 1.20 conceded against FC København
- W 1.92 created, 1.14 conceded against Odense Boldklub
- L 0.22 created, 2.70 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
- L 0.99 created, 2.14 conceded against Brøndby IF
1.30 xG created 1.25 xGA
- D 0.73 created, 2.40 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
- L 1.95 created, 2.09 conceded against Brøndby IF
- W 0.82 created, 1.09 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
- W 1.97 created, 0.41 conceded against AC Horsens
- D 1.05 created, 0.49 conceded against Lyngby
- W 1.28 created, 1.03 conceded against Randers FC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +44.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | +42.3% | Won |
| Silkeborg IF to win | 6.50 | +37.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.75 | +36.2% | Won |
| Both teams not to score | 2.20 | +0.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silkeborg IF | 22.9% | 14.4% | +8.5 pp | 4.37 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 19.7% | +10.6 pp | 3.30 |
| FC Midtjylland | 46.9% | 65.9% | −19.0 pp | 2.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 57.7% | −2.1 pp | 1.80 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.5% | 42.3% | +2.1 pp | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | 84.2% | −8.2 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.0% | 15.8% | +8.2 pp | 4.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 63.8% | −16.5 pp | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 36.2% | +16.5 pp | 1.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Silkeborg IF sample
- 20 matches
- FC Midtjylland sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.