Monday, 02/11/2026 at 19:00
27d 17h to kick-offSønderjyske Fodbold – FC København
Model updated 6 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sønderjyske Fodbold
- 21%
- Draw
- 28%
- FC København
- 52%
| Sønderjyske Fodbold | Draw | FC København | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.87 | 3.60 | 1.93 |
- Total goals
- 2.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC København
52% FC København to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 12th
- FC København attack v Sønderjyske Fodbold defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 10th
- FC København defence v Sønderjyske Fodbold attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.74 vs -0.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.07 – 1.72
- Sønderjyske Fodbold v FC København
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sønderjyske Fodbold | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.01 · 12th | (better) 1.62 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.81 · 12th | (better) 1.16 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.80 · 12th | (better) +0.46 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.82 · 12th | (better) 1.71 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.86 | (better) +0.74 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- FC København clean sheet
- 31%
- FC København 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.0%
- 1:2
- 11.5%
- 0:2
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sønderjyske Fodbold sample
- 20 matches
- FC København sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sønderjyske Fodbold
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FC København
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.