Friday, 23/10/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFC Botoșani 1:3 FC Petrolul Ploieşti
FC Botoșani were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. FC Petrolul Ploieşti won 3–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
The model against the result
- FC Botoșani
- 57%
- Draw
- 23%
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 20% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 10
- On target
- 6
- 4
- Inside the box
- 5
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.21
- 0.13
Recent form
2.16 xG created 2.24 xGA
- D 2.32 created, 2.25 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- W 3.79 created, 1.19 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- D 1.19 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- L 0.92 created, 3.62 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- W 4.32 created, 1.03 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 0.44 created, 3.85 conceded against FC Dinamo București
1.45 xG created 2.33 xGA
- W 2.02 created, 3.33 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- W 0.87 created, 1.35 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- D 1.24 created, 6.31 conceded against FCSB
- W 2.15 created, 0.57 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- L 1.64 created, 1.37 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- D 0.78 created, 1.05 conceded against Sepsi OSK
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged6 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botoșani 2+ goals | 1.83 | +27.4% | Lost |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals | 3.00 | +27.2% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +26.2% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +26.0% | Won |
| FC Botoșani to win | 1.95 | +11.7% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +9.8% | Won |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti to score | 1.40 | +9.8% | Won |
| FC Botoșani to score | 1.17 | +7.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botoșani | 57.3% | 45.7% | +11.5 pp | 1.75 |
| Draw | 22.5% | 25.5% | −3.0 pp | 4.44 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti | 20.2% | 28.8% | −8.6 pp | 4.95 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botoșani to score | 91.8% | 81.1% | +10.7 pp | 1.09 |
| FC Botoșani not to score | 8.2% | 18.9% | −10.7 pp | 12.22 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti to score | 78.4% | 66.3% | +12.2 pp | 1.27 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti not to score | 21.6% | 33.7% | −12.2 pp | 4.64 |
| Both teams to score | 73.1% | 53.7% | +19.4 pp | 1.37 |
| Both teams not to score | 26.9% | 46.3% | −19.4 pp | 3.71 |
| FC Botoșani 2+ goals | 69.5% | 50.0% | +19.5 pp | 1.44 |
| FC Botoșani at most 1 goal | 30.5% | 50.0% | −19.5 pp | 3.28 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals | 42.4% | 31.3% | +11.1 pp | 2.36 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti at most 1 goal | 57.6% | 68.7% | −11.1 pp | 1.74 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.5% | 78.3% | +13.2 pp | 1.09 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.5% | 21.7% | −13.2 pp | 11.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.1% | 55.3% | +18.9 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.9% | 44.7% | −18.9 pp | 3.87 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Botoșani sample
- 20 matches
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.