CFR 1907 Cluj 3:1 FC Botoșani: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

CFR 1907 Cluj Home 3.62 xG

FC Botoșani Away 0.92 xG

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

CFR 1907 Cluj were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was CFR 1907 Cluj's attack: 3.62 xG against 1.98 projected (+1.64). FC Botoșani produced 0.92 xG against 1.36 projected (−0.44).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

CFR 1907 Cluj: 51% What happened
Draw: 25%
FC Botoșani: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1.98 3.62 +1.64

FC Botoșani 1.36 0.92 -0.44

CFR 1907 Cluj produced 1.64 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

CFR 1907 Cluj FC Botoșani

Shots: 23; 10
On target: 10; 2
Inside the box: 16; 7
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.72 xG created 2.23 xGA

L 0.83 created, 3.24 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
W 2.88 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Voluntari
L 1.17 created, 3.84 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
W 1.54 created, 1.74 conceded against FCSB
W 2.02 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
L 1.89 created, 2.41 conceded against Sepsi OSK

FC Botoșani

2.07 xG created 1.65 xGA

D 1.96 created, 1.59 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
L 1.38 created, 2.37 conceded against FCSB
W 1.81 created, 1.01 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
D 2.32 created, 2.25 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
W 3.79 created, 1.19 conceded against Sepsi OSK
D 1.19 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

CFR 1907 Cluj: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on CFR 1907 Cluj against FC Botoșani before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	+23.9%	Won
Both teams to score	1.67	+15.6%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+10.1%	Won
CFR 1907 Cluj to win	2.05	+4.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CFR 1907 Cluj	51.2%	43.6%	+7.5 pp	1.95
Draw	25.3%	27.5%	−2.2 pp	3.95
FC Botoșani	23.6%	28.9%	−5.3 pp	4.25

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	69.3%	55.7%	+13.6 pp	1.44
Both teams not to score	30.7%	44.3%	−13.6 pp	3.26
Over 1.5 goals	88.1%	75.0%	+13.1 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	11.9%	25.0%	−13.1 pp	8.38
Over 2.5 goals	67.0%	51.3%	+15.7 pp	1.49
Under 2.5 goals	33.0%	48.7%	−15.7 pp	3.03

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
CFR 1907 Cluj sample: 20 matches
FC Botoșani sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.