Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:00
20d 11h to kick-offFC Botoșani – FC Petrolul Ploieşti
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Botoșani
- 56%
- Draw
- 23%
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 21%
| FC Botoșani | Draw | FC Petrolul Ploieşti | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.79 | 4.29 | 4.78 |
- Total goals
- 3.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Botoșani
56% FC Botoșani to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 15th
- FC Botoșani attack v FC Petrolul Ploieşti defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 12th
- FC Botoșani defence v FC Petrolul Ploieşti attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.09 vs -0.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.21 – 1.38
- FC Botoșani v FC Petrolul Ploieşti
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Botoșani | FC Petrolul Ploieşti |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.99 · 5th | 1.34 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.10 · 14th | 2.38 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.11 · 11th | -1.04 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.34 · 11th | 1.06 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.09 | -0.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- FC Botoșani clean sheet
- 22%
- FC Botoșani 2+ goals
- 67%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:1
- 9.8%
- 3:1
- 7.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Botoșani sample
- 20 matches
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Botoșani
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.