Friday, 16/10/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFK Radnik Surdulica 3:0 FK Radnički Niš
FK Radnik Surdulica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was FK Radnički Niš's attack: 0.26 xG against 1.28 projected (−1.02). FK Radnik Surdulica produced 2.51 xG against 1.57 projected (+0.94).
The model against the result
- FK Radnik Surdulica
- 43% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- FK Radnički Niš
- 28%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Radnički Niš produced 1.02 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 24
- 2
- On target
- 10
- 1
- Inside the box
- 13
- 1
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.13
Recent form
1.68 xG created 1.56 xGA
- W 0.88 created, 0.51 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 0.62 created, 1.17 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- W 1.63 created, 2.70 conceded against FK Čukarički
- D 3.62 created, 0.20 conceded against FK Zemun
- D 2.02 created, 3.40 conceded against FK Partizan
- L 1.33 created, 1.37 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
1.46 xG created 1.58 xGA
- L 1.14 created, 0.78 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- D 0.63 created, 0.76 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- L 2.20 created, 1.11 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- W 2.66 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 0.69 created, 3.66 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 1.44 created, 2.16 conceded against FK Vojvodina
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged4 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | +16.2% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +15.5% | Lost |
| FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals | 3.00 | +12.2% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | +9.2% | Won |
| FK Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals | 2.25 | +8.6% | Won |
| FK Radnik Surdulica to score | 1.29 | +5.4% | Won |
| FK Radnički Niš to score | 1.40 | +4.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 42.6% | 42.5% | +0.1 pp | 2.35 |
| Draw | 29.0% | 28.1% | +0.9 pp | 3.45 |
| FK Radnički Niš | 28.4% | 29.4% | −1.0 pp | 3.52 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica to score | 82.0% | 73.1% | +8.8 pp | 1.22 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica not to score | 18.0% | 26.9% | −8.8 pp | 5.54 |
| FK Radnički Niš to score | 74.9% | 66.3% | +8.6 pp | 1.34 |
| FK Radnički Niš not to score | 25.1% | 33.7% | −8.6 pp | 3.98 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | 50.0% | +13.0 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.0% | 50.0% | −13.0 pp | 2.71 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals | 48.3% | 41.1% | +7.2 pp | 2.07 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica at most 1 goal | 51.7% | 58.9% | −7.2 pp | 1.93 |
| FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals | 37.4% | 31.3% | +6.1 pp | 2.67 |
| FK Radnički Niš at most 1 goal | 62.6% | 68.7% | −6.1 pp | 1.60 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | 70.9% | +11.0 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.1% | 29.1% | −11.0 pp | 5.52 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 45.4% | +10.6 pp | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 54.6% | −10.6 pp | 2.27 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnik Surdulica sample
- 20 matches
- FK Radnički Niš sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.