FK Zemun 1:1 FK Radnik Surdulica: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Zemun Home 0.20 xG

FK Radnik Surdulica Away 3.62 xG

11 FK Radnik Surdulica had the better chances, but it finished level

FK Radnik Surdulica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FK Radnik Surdulica's attack: 3.62 xG against 1.68 projected (+1.94). FK Zemun produced 0.20 xG against 1.27 projected (−1.07).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Zemun: 26%
Draw: 28% What happened
FK Radnik Surdulica: 45%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Zemun 1.27 0.20 -1.07

FK Radnik Surdulica 1.68 3.62 +1.94

FK Radnik Surdulica produced 1.94 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Zemun FK Radnik Surdulica

Shots: 9; 24
On target: 2; 7
Inside the box: 2; 12
xG per shot: 0.02; 0.15

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Zemun

0.84 xG created 3.63 xGA

D 1.17 created, 2.55 conceded against FK Partizan
L 0.00 created, 3.98 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
L 0.53 created, 2.77 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
L 1.06 created, 4.05 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
L 1.52 created, 3.51 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
L 0.78 created, 4.89 conceded against FK Vojvodina

FK Radnik Surdulica

1.27 xG created 1.52 xGA

L 1.91 created, 2.48 conceded against FK Partizan
D 0.79 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
L 1.77 created, 1.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
W 0.88 created, 0.51 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
W 0.62 created, 1.17 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
W 1.63 created, 2.70 conceded against FK Čukarički

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Zemun against FK Radnik Surdulica before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.15	+25.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.91	+23.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	+13.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Zemun	26.4%	28.3%	−1.9 pp	3.79
Draw	28.2%	27.9%	+0.3 pp	3.55
FK Radnik Surdulica	45.5%	43.8%	+1.6 pp	2.20

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.5%	48.5%	+15.9 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.5%	51.5%	−15.9 pp	2.81
Over 1.5 goals	83.4%	68.7%	+14.7 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.6%	31.3%	−14.7 pp	6.03
Over 2.5 goals	58.4%	43.7%	+14.8 pp	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.6%	56.3%	−14.8 pp	2.41

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Zemun sample: 6 matches
FK Radnik Surdulica sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FK Zemun has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.