FK Vojvodina 2:1 FK Zemun: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 21:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Vojvodina Home 4.89 xG

FK Zemun Away 0.78 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

FK Vojvodina were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 78%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FK Vojvodina's attack: 4.89 xG against 3.01 projected (+1.88).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Vojvodina: 78% What happened
Draw: 14%
FK Zemun: 7%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Vojvodina 3.01 4.89 +1.88

FK Zemun 1.02 0.78 -0.24

FK Vojvodina produced 1.88 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Vojvodina FK Zemun

Shots: 29; 8
On target: 9; 5
Inside the box: 20; 4
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Vojvodina

2.84 xG created 1.51 xGA

W 2.15 created, 0.29 conceded against OFK Beograd
W 2.22 created, 2.08 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
W 1.21 created, 1.77 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
L 6.21 created, 2.85 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
W 3.41 created, 0.33 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
W 1.84 created, 1.74 conceded against FK Čukarički

FK Zemun

0.86 xG created 3.37 xGA

D 1.17 created, 2.55 conceded against FK Partizan
L 0.00 created, 3.98 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
L 0.53 created, 2.77 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
L 1.06 created, 4.05 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
L 1.52 created, 3.51 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Vojvodina against FK Zemun before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+16.6%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.33	+5.1%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.10	+2.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Vojvodina	78.4%	79.4%	−1.0 pp	1.28
Draw	14.3%	13.4%	+0.9 pp	7.01
FK Zemun	7.4%	7.2%	+0.1 pp	13.60

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.8%	51.5%	+13.3 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.2%	48.5%	−13.3 pp	2.84
Over 1.5 goals	93.4%	85.5%	+7.8 pp	1.07
Under 1.5 goals	6.6%	14.5%	−7.8 pp	15.07
Over 2.5 goals	78.9%	70.9%	+8.0 pp	1.27
Under 2.5 goals	21.1%	29.1%	−8.0 pp	4.73

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Vojvodina sample: 20 matches
FK Zemun sample: 5 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FK Zemun has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.