Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 18:30
Full timeFK Železničar Pančevo 1:0 FK Partizan
FK Železničar Pančevo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK Partizan's attack: 0.80 xG against 1.48 projected (−0.68). FK Železničar Pančevo produced 1.27 xG against 1.67 projected (−0.40).
The model against the result
- FK Železničar Pančevo
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Partizan
- 32%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Partizan produced 0.68 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 9
- On target
- 4
- 2
- Inside the box
- 6
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.09
Recent form
2.34 xG created 1.21 xGA
- W 0.92 created, 1.05 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- D 1.87 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- L 0.33 created, 3.41 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- W 4.63 created, 0.11 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 2.89 created, 0.53 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 3.42 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Zemun
2.00 xG created 1.64 xGA
- L 2.22 created, 1.40 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- W 2.71 created, 1.32 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.16 created, 1.96 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 2.02 created, 1.55 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- D 3.40 created, 2.02 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- W 0.51 created, 1.58 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 qualified edges flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +3.8% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +3.1% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | +2.3% | Lost |
| FK Železničar Pančevo to score | 1.20 | +0.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Železničar Pančevo | 40.6% | 42.6% | −2.0 pp | 2.46 |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.9% | +0.6 pp | 3.63 |
| FK Partizan | 31.8% | 30.5% | +1.3 pp | 3.14 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Železničar Pančevo to score | 83.6% | 78.3% | +5.3 pp | 1.20 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo not to score | 16.4% | 21.7% | −5.3 pp | 6.11 |
| FK Partizan to score | 79.8% | 75.0% | +4.8 pp | 1.25 |
| FK Partizan not to score | 20.2% | 25.0% | −4.8 pp | 4.96 |
| Both teams to score | 68.2% | 62.5% | +5.7 pp | 1.47 |
| Both teams not to score | 31.8% | 37.5% | −5.7 pp | 3.15 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals | 51.5% | 48.5% | +2.9 pp | 1.94 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal | 48.5% | 51.5% | −2.9 pp | 2.06 |
| FK Partizan 2+ goals | 44.8% | 44.3% | +0.5 pp | 2.23 |
| FK Partizan at most 1 goal | 55.2% | 55.7% | −0.5 pp | 1.81 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | 78.3% | +7.6 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.1% | 21.7% | −7.6 pp | 7.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 55.3% | +7.7 pp | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | 44.7% | −7.7 pp | 2.70 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Železničar Pančevo sample
- 20 matches
- FK Partizan sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 29 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.