FK Zemun 0:3 FK Železničar Pančevo: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Zemun Home 0.96 xG

FK Železničar Pančevo Away 3.42 xG

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

FK Železničar Pančevo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was FK Železničar Pančevo's attack: 3.42 xG against 2.16 projected (+1.26).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Zemun: 16%
Draw: 23%
FK Železničar Pančevo: 60% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Zemun 1.14 0.96 -0.18

FK Železničar Pančevo 2.16 3.42 +1.26

FK Železničar Pančevo produced 1.26 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Zemun FK Železničar Pančevo

Shots: 6; 18
On target: 3; 9
Inside the box: 3; 13
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.19

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Zemun

0.78 xG created 3.71 xGA

L 0.53 created, 2.77 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
L 1.06 created, 4.05 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
L 1.52 created, 3.51 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
L 0.78 created, 4.89 conceded against FK Vojvodina
D 0.20 created, 3.62 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
D 0.60 created, 3.40 conceded against FK Novi Pazar

FK Železničar Pančevo

1.87 xG created 1.24 xGA

D 0.56 created, 1.12 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
W 0.92 created, 1.05 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
D 1.87 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
L 0.33 created, 3.41 conceded against FK Vojvodina
W 4.63 created, 0.11 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
W 2.89 created, 0.53 conceded against FK Čukarički

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged4 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Zemun against FK Železničar Pančevo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FK Zemun 2+ goals	4.33	+38.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.91	+24.8%	Lost
FK Zemun to score	1.67	+18.2%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+16.1%	Won
FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals	1.67	+10.1%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+7.1%	Won
FK Železničar Pančevo to score	1.13	+1.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Zemun	16.5%	16.0%	+0.4 pp	6.07
Draw	23.1%	22.5%	+0.6 pp	4.33
FK Železničar Pančevo	60.5%	61.5%	−1.0 pp	1.65

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Zemun to score	70.9%	55.7%	+15.1 pp	1.41
FK Zemun not to score	29.1%	44.3%	−15.1 pp	3.44
FK Železničar Pančevo to score	90.5%	83.0%	+7.4 pp	1.11
FK Železničar Pančevo not to score	9.5%	17.0%	−7.4 pp	10.49
Both teams to score	65.4%	48.5%	+16.8 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.6%	51.5%	−16.8 pp	2.89
FK Zemun 2+ goals	32.0%	21.7%	+10.4 pp	3.12
FK Zemun at most 1 goal	68.0%	78.3%	−10.4 pp	1.47
FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals	66.1%	55.7%	+10.3 pp	1.51
FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal	33.9%	44.3%	−10.3 pp	2.95
Over 1.5 goals	87.7%	76.6%	+11.1 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.3%	23.4%	−11.1 pp	8.10
Over 2.5 goals	66.3%	53.9%	+12.4 pp	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	33.7%	46.1%	−12.4 pp	2.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Zemun sample: 8 matches
FK Železničar Pančevo sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 59 minutes before kick-off

Warnings

FK Zemun has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.