Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 20:30
26d 17h to kick-offFC Luzern – FC Sion
Model updated 5 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Luzern
- 32%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Sion
- 40%
| FC Luzern | Draw | FC Sion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.09 | 3.67 | 2.47 |
- Total goals
- 3.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Sion
40% FC Sion to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 9th
- FC Sion attack v FC Luzern defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 3rd
- FC Sion defence v FC Luzern attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.81 vs +0.46
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.52 – 1.70
- FC Luzern v FC Sion
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Luzern | FC Sion |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.95 · 4th | (better) 2.31 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 2.02 · 10th | (better) 1.48 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.08 · 5th | (better) +0.82 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.36 · 5th | (better) 1.90 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.46 | (better) +0.81 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- FC Sion clean sheet
- 19%
- FC Sion 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.3%
- 1:2
- 10.0%
- 2:1
- 8.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Luzern sample
- 20 matches
- FC Sion sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Luzern
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Sion
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.