FC Thun 2:3 FC Lugano: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 14:00

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Thun Home 1.87 xG · 17 shots

FC Lugano Away 1.68 xG · 19 shots

23 The chances were evenly matched

FC Lugano were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was FC Thun's attack: 1.87 xG against 1.45 projected (+0.42).

Goals

34' Dereck Moncada FC Lugano · 0.44 xG chance 0–1
37' Nassim Zoukit FC Thun · 0.20 xG chance 1–1
49' Uran Bislimi FC Lugano · 0.03 xG chance 1–2
76' Albian Ajeti FC Lugano · 0.16 xG chance 1–3
88' Riccardo Braschi (pen.) FC Thun · 0.82 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Thun: 30%
Draw: 27%
FC Lugano: 43% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Thun 1.45 1.87 +0.42

FC Lugano 1.72 1.68 -0.04

FC Thun produced 0.42 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Thun FC Lugano

Shots: 17; 19
On target: 9; 6
Inside the box: 14; 11
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.89; 1.63
Set-piece xG: 0.23; 0.05
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.09 for FC Thun.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 3.62 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

FC Thun
FC Lugano
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Thun

1.80 xG created 1.85 xGA

D 1.58 created, 0.86 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
L 2.33 created, 2.78 conceded against FC Sion
L 1.67 created, 2.26 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
L 2.05 created, 1.52 conceded against Servette FC
W 1.70 created, 2.77 conceded against FC Vaduz
L 1.44 created, 0.91 conceded against FC Zürich

FC Lugano

1.76 xG created 1.16 xGA

W 1.29 created, 1.81 conceded against Servette FC
W 1.67 created, 0.31 conceded against Basel
D 1.51 created, 2.32 conceded against Young Boys
W 1.41 created, 1.14 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
W 2.09 created, 0.50 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 2.56 created, 0.89 conceded against FC Luzern

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Thun: 1 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 qualified edges flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Thun against FC Lugano before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Thun to win	3.90	+17.6%	Lost
FC Lugano at most 1 goal	2.50	+16.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.10	+13.1%	Lost
Draw	4.00	+9.1%	Lost
FC Lugano not to score	7.00	+7.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Thun	30.1%	23.9%	+6.3 pp	3.32
Draw	27.3%	23.3%	+4.0 pp	3.67
FC Lugano	42.6%	52.9%	−10.3 pp	2.35

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Thun to score	79.2%	75.0%	+4.2 pp	1.26
FC Thun not to score	20.8%	25.0%	−4.2 pp	4.80
FC Lugano to score	84.6%	86.4%	−1.8 pp	1.18
FC Lugano not to score	15.4%	13.6%	+1.8 pp	6.50
Both teams to score	68.5%	66.3%	+2.2 pp	1.46
Both teams not to score	31.5%	33.7%	−2.2 pp	3.17
FC Thun 2+ goals	43.8%	42.3%	+1.5 pp	2.28
FC Thun at most 1 goal	56.2%	57.7%	−1.5 pp	1.78
FC Lugano 2+ goals	53.2%	62.5%	−9.3 pp	1.88
FC Lugano at most 1 goal	46.8%	37.5%	+9.3 pp	2.14
Over 1.5 goals	86.3%	86.4%	−0.1 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	13.7%	13.6%	+0.1 pp	7.28
Over 2.5 goals	63.5%	69.4%	−5.9 pp	1.57
Under 2.5 goals	36.5%	30.6%	+5.9 pp	2.74

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Thun sample: 20 matches
FC Lugano sample: 20 matches
Computed: 20 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.