FC Lausanne-Sport 0:4 FC Lugano: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Lausanne-Sport Home 0.50 xG · 7 shots

FC Lugano Away 2.09 xG · 22 shots

04 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Lugano were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was FC Lugano's attack: 2.09 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.74). FC Lausanne-Sport produced 0.50 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.55).

Goals

35' Hannes Delcroix FC Lugano · 0.39 xG chance 0–1
48' Hannes Delcroix FC Lugano · 0.05 xG chance 0–2
52' Hannes Delcroix FC Lugano · 0.28 xG chance 0–3
61' Abdou Karim Sow (o.g.) FC Lugano · 0.10 xG chance 0–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Lausanne-Sport: 26%
Draw: 32%
FC Lugano: 42% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Lausanne-Sport 1.05 0.50 -0.55

FC Lugano 1.35 2.09 +0.74

FC Lugano produced 0.74 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Lausanne-Sport FC Lugano

Shots: 7; 22
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 4; 12
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.16; 1.23
Set-piece xG: 0.35; 0.97
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.51 for FC Lausanne-Sport and 2.19 for FC Lugano.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.71 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Lausanne-Sport
FC Lugano
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Lausanne-Sport

0.97 xG created 1.42 xGA

D 1.54 created, 1.09 conceded against Young Boys
L 0.41 created, 0.98 conceded against FC Luzern
L 1.09 created, 1.71 conceded against FC Zürich
D 0.86 created, 1.58 conceded against FC Thun
L 0.50 created, 1.65 conceded against FC Vaduz
L 1.42 created, 1.49 conceded against Servette FC

FC Lugano

1.50 xG created 1.38 xGA

W 2.46 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Zürich
W 0.67 created, 1.82 conceded against FC Sion
W 1.29 created, 1.81 conceded against Servette FC
W 1.67 created, 0.31 conceded against Basel
D 1.51 created, 2.32 conceded against Young Boys
W 1.41 created, 1.14 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Lausanne-Sport: 0 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Lausanne-Sport against FC Lugano before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Lugano not to score	5.50	+27.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+20.5%	Lost
FC Lugano at most 1 goal	2.00	+20.0%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+18.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+14.4%	Lost
FC Lausanne-Sport to win	4.00	+5.9%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.20	+0.7%	Won
FC Lausanne-Sport at most 1 goal	1.40	+0.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lausanne-Sport	26.5%	23.6%	+2.9 pp	3.78
Draw	31.9%	25.5%	+6.4 pp	3.13
FC Lugano	41.6%	51.0%	−9.4 pp	2.40

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lausanne-Sport to score	68.1%	68.7%	−0.6 pp	1.47
FC Lausanne-Sport not to score	31.9%	31.3%	+0.6 pp	3.14
FC Lugano to score	76.8%	82.8%	−6.0 pp	1.30
FC Lugano not to score	23.2%	17.2%	+6.0 pp	4.31
Both teams to score	54.2%	57.7%	−3.4 pp	1.84
Both teams not to score	45.8%	42.3%	+3.4 pp	2.18
FC Lausanne-Sport 2+ goals	28.5%	33.7%	−5.2 pp	3.50
FC Lausanne-Sport at most 1 goal	71.5%	66.3%	+5.2 pp	1.40
FC Lugano 2+ goals	40.0%	53.7%	−13.7 pp	2.50
FC Lugano at most 1 goal	60.0%	46.3%	+13.7 pp	1.67
Over 1.5 goals	73.6%	78.3%	−4.7 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.4%	21.7%	+4.7 pp	3.79
Over 2.5 goals	44.0%	56.3%	−12.4 pp	2.27
Under 2.5 goals	56.0%	43.7%	+12.4 pp	1.78

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Lausanne-Sport sample: 20 matches
FC Lugano sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.