FC Thun 2:4 Servette FC: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Thun Home 2.05 xG · 17 shots

Servette FC Away 1.52 xG · 13 shots

24 The result went against the chances

Servette FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 4–2. The biggest difference was FC Thun's attack: 2.05 xG against 1.40 projected (+0.65).

Goals

4' Kingstone Mutandwa Servette FC · 0.11 xG chance 0–1
29' Mathis Lambourde Servette FC · 0.20 xG chance 0–2
38' Fabio Saiz FC Thun · 0.24 xG chance 1–2
54' Fabio Saiz FC Thun · 0.07 xG chance 2–2
65' Teo Allix Servette FC · 0.03 xG chance 2–3
86' David Datro Fofana Servette FC · 0.52 xG chance 2–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Thun: 32%
Draw: 29%
Servette FC: 39% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Thun 1.40 2.05 +0.65

Servette FC 1.53 1.52 -0.01

FC Thun produced 0.65 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Thun Servette FC

Shots: 17; 13
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 12; 10
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.12
Open play xG: 1.52; 1.28
Set-piece xG: 0.71; 0.28
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.22 for FC Thun and 1.52 for Servette FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 3.79 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Thun
Servette FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Thun

1.35 xG created 2.21 xGA

L 0.61 created, 3.38 conceded against Young Boys
L 0.64 created, 1.09 conceded against Basel
W 1.26 created, 2.88 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
D 1.58 created, 0.86 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
L 2.33 created, 2.78 conceded against FC Sion
L 1.67 created, 2.26 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich

Servette FC

1.59 xG created 1.29 xGA

L 1.53 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Zürich
W 2.15 created, 0.97 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
D 1.64 created, 1.23 conceded against FC Luzern
L 1.81 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Lugano
L 0.90 created, 1.37 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
W 1.49 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Thun: 3 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Thun against Servette FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.60	+9.7%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+7.1%	Lost
FC Thun at most 1 goal	1.80	+4.5%	Lost
Servette FC at most 1 goal	1.91	+2.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+1.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Thun	32.5%	33.6%	−1.1 pp	3.08
Draw	28.9%	25.4%	+3.5 pp	3.45
Servette FC	38.6%	40.9%	−2.4 pp	2.59

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Thun to score	78.2%	78.3%	−0.2 pp	1.28
FC Thun not to score	21.8%	21.7%	+0.2 pp	4.58
Servette FC to score	80.9%	81.1%	−0.1 pp	1.24
Servette FC not to score	19.1%	18.9%	+0.1 pp	5.25
Both teams to score	64.9%	66.3%	−1.4 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.1%	33.7%	+1.4 pp	2.85
FC Thun 2+ goals	42.0%	48.5%	−6.6 pp	2.38
FC Thun at most 1 goal	58.0%	51.5%	+6.6 pp	1.72
Servette FC 2+ goals	46.6%	51.5%	−4.9 pp	2.15
Servette FC at most 1 goal	53.4%	48.5%	+4.9 pp	1.87
Over 1.5 goals	83.1%	84.2%	−1.2 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.9%	15.8%	+1.2 pp	5.90
Over 2.5 goals	57.8%	63.8%	−6.0 pp	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	42.2%	36.2%	+6.0 pp	2.37

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Thun sample: 20 matches
Servette FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.