Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 16:30
Full timeFC Lausanne-Sport 0:1 Servette FC
Servette FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Lausanne-Sport's attack: 1.42 xG against 0.98 projected (+0.44).
Goals
- 52' Kingstone Mutandwa (pen.) Servette FC · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- FC Lausanne-Sport
- 25%
- Draw
- 32%
- Servette FC
- 43% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Lausanne-Sport produced 0.44 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 10
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 10
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.15
- Open play xG
- 0.35
- 0.46
- Set-piece xG
- 1.07
- 0.24
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.70 for Servette FC.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 2.94 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Lausanne-Sport
- Servette FC
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.82 xG created 1.33 xGA
1.53 xG created 1.33 xGA
- L 1.14 created, 1.61 conceded against Basel
- L 1.53 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Zürich
- W 2.15 created, 0.97 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
- D 1.64 created, 1.23 conceded against FC Luzern
- L 1.81 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Lugano
- L 0.90 created, 1.37 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged6 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Servette FC not to score | 5.00 | +20.5% | Lost |
| FC Lausanne-Sport not to score | 3.40 | +18.6% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +18.3% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.00 | +16.0% | Won |
| Both teams not to score | 2.38 | +15.5% | Won |
| Servette FC at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +12.3% | Won |
| FC Lausanne-Sport at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +11.8% | Won |
| Draw | 3.25 | +5.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lausanne-Sport | 24.9% | 28.2% | −3.3 pp | 4.01 |
| Draw | 32.4% | 28.6% | +3.8 pp | 3.08 |
| Servette FC | 42.7% | 43.2% | −0.6 pp | 2.34 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lausanne-Sport to score | 65.1% | 72.3% | −7.2 pp | 1.54 |
| FC Lausanne-Sport not to score | 34.9% | 27.7% | +7.2 pp | 2.87 |
| Servette FC to score | 75.9% | 81.1% | −5.2 pp | 1.32 |
| Servette FC not to score | 24.1% | 18.9% | +5.2 pp | 4.15 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 60.8% | −9.4 pp | 1.95 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.6% | 39.2% | +9.4 pp | 2.06 |
| FC Lausanne-Sport 2+ goals | 25.5% | 37.5% | −12.0 pp | 3.92 |
| FC Lausanne-Sport at most 1 goal | 74.5% | 62.5% | +12.0 pp | 1.34 |
| Servette FC 2+ goals | 38.8% | 50.0% | −11.2 pp | 2.58 |
| Servette FC at most 1 goal | 61.2% | 50.0% | +11.2 pp | 1.63 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | 76.6% | −5.6 pp | 1.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 23.4% | +5.6 pp | 3.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 52.6% | −11.8 pp | 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 47.4% | +11.8 pp | 1.69 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Lausanne-Sport sample
- 20 matches
- Servette FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.