Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 14:00
7d 13h to kick-offGrasshopper Club Zürich – Young Boys
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Grasshopper Club Zürich
- 27%
- Draw
- 25%
- Young Boys
- 49%
| Grasshopper Club Zürich | Draw | Young Boys | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.73 | 4.07 | 2.06 |
- Total goals
- 3.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 74%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Grasshopper Club Zürich
- Model
- 26.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.4%
- Probability gap
- +6.4 pp
- Edge
- +20.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.73
- Market odds
- 4.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.92
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.0%
-
Draw
- Model
- 24.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.4%
- Probability gap
- +4.2 pp
- Edge
- +10.7%
- Fair odds
- 4.07
- Market odds
- 4.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.27
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.0%
-
Young Boys
- Model
- 48.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 59.2%
- Probability gap
- −10.6 pp
- Edge
- −24.6%
- Fair odds
- 2.06
- Market odds
- 1.55 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.16
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.0%
Outcomes with value
Grasshopper Club Zürich to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
Grasshopper Club Zürich to win
Model 26.8% vs. bookmaker 20.4%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Young Boys
49% Young Boys to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 12th
- Young Boys attack v Grasshopper Club Zürich defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 8th
- Young Boys defence v Grasshopper Club Zürich attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.77 vs -0.01
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.55 – 2.06
- Grasshopper Club Zürich v Young Boys
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Grasshopper Club Zürich | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.01 · 3rd | (better) 2.28 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 2.18 · 11th | (better) 1.41 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.18 · 8th | (better) +0.87 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.29 · 7th | (better) 1.90 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.01 | (better) +0.77 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- Young Boys clean sheet
- 19%
- Young Boys 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 9.9%
- 2:2
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Grasshopper Club Zürich sample
- 20 matches
- Young Boys sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Grasshopper Club Zürich
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Young Boys
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.