Young Boys 3:2 Servette FC: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

Young Boys Home 2.35 xG · 22 shots

Servette FC Away 0.54 xG · 8 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Young Boys were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Servette FC's attack: 0.54 xG against 1.35 projected (−0.81). Young Boys produced 2.35 xG against 1.76 projected (+0.59).

Goals

13' Marco Burch Servette FC · 0.15 xG chance 0–1
30' Kingstone Mutandwa Servette FC · 0.05 xG chance 0–2
39' Alan Virginius Young Boys · 0.07 xG chance 1–2
69' Samuel Essende Young Boys · 0.32 xG chance 2–2
83' Samuel Essende Young Boys · 0.31 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Young Boys: 46% What happened
Draw: 27%
Servette FC: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Young Boys 1.76 2.35 +0.59

Servette FC 1.35 0.54 -0.81

Servette FC produced 0.81 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Young Boys Servette FC

Shots: 22; 8
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 15; 5
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.84; 0.36
Set-piece xG: 0.55; 0.19
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.35 for Young Boys and 0.54 for Servette FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 2.94 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Young Boys
Servette FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Young Boys

2.04 xG created 1.64 xGA

D 1.09 created, 1.54 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 2.19 created, 1.64 conceded against FC Vaduz
D 1.77 created, 1.28 conceded against Basel
W 1.52 created, 1.71 conceded against FC Zürich
D 3.36 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Luzern
D 2.32 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Lugano

Servette FC

1.59 xG created 1.39 xGA

W 2.15 created, 0.97 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
D 1.64 created, 1.23 conceded against FC Luzern
L 1.81 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Lugano
L 0.90 created, 1.37 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
W 1.49 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 1.52 created, 2.05 conceded against FC Thun

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Young Boys: 1 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Young Boys against Servette FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.75	+29.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.30	+25.5%	Lost
Servette FC to win	4.50	+21.6%	Lost
Young Boys at most 1 goal	2.63	+20.0%	Lost
Young Boys not to score	8.00	+19.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	7.50	+9.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Young Boys	45.7%	59.5%	−13.8 pp	2.19
Draw	27.2%	19.7%	+7.6 pp	3.67
Servette FC	27.0%	20.8%	+6.2 pp	3.70

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Young Boys to score	85.1%	88.1%	−3.0 pp	1.18
Young Boys not to score	14.9%	11.9%	+3.0 pp	6.69
Servette FC to score	76.8%	73.1%	+3.7 pp	1.30
Servette FC not to score	23.2%	26.9%	−3.7 pp	4.32
Both teams to score	66.8%	66.3%	+0.6 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.2%	33.7%	−0.6 pp	3.01
Young Boys 2+ goals	54.3%	64.5%	−10.2 pp	1.84
Young Boys at most 1 goal	45.7%	35.5%	+10.2 pp	2.19
Servette FC 2+ goals	40.0%	41.1%	−1.1 pp	2.50
Servette FC at most 1 goal	60.0%	58.9%	+1.1 pp	1.67
Over 1.5 goals	85.4%	87.7%	−2.3 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.6%	12.3%	+2.3 pp	6.84
Over 2.5 goals	62.0%	72.0%	−10.0 pp	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.0%	28.0%	+10.0 pp	2.63

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Young Boys sample: 20 matches
Servette FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.