Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:00
20d 13h to kick-offChornomorets Odesa – Karpaty Lviv
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Chornomorets Odesa
- 29%
- Draw
- 31%
- Karpaty Lviv
- 40%
| Chornomorets Odesa | Draw | Karpaty Lviv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.42 | 3.22 | 2.52 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Karpaty Lviv
40% Karpaty Lviv to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 11th
- Karpaty Lviv attack v Chornomorets Odesa defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 13th
- Karpaty Lviv defence v Chornomorets Odesa attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.13 vs -0.76
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.18 – 1.39
- Chornomorets Odesa v Karpaty Lviv
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Chornomorets Odesa | Karpaty Lviv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.54 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 1.90 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.30 · 8th from 4 matches | 1.59 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) +0.30 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.74 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 1.58 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.76 from 4 matches | (better) +0.13 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Karpaty Lviv clean sheet
- 28%
- Karpaty Lviv 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 1:2
- 10.2%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Chornomorets Odesa sample
- 4 matches
- Karpaty Lviv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Chornomorets Odesa
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Karpaty Lviv
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Chornomorets Odesa has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.