Friday, 11/09/2026 at 12:00
Full timeKolos Kovalivka 0:2 Karpaty Lviv
Karpaty Lviv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Karpaty Lviv's attack: 2.39 xG against 1.34 projected (+1.05).
The model against the result
- Kolos Kovalivka
- 32%
- Draw
- 31%
- Karpaty Lviv
- 37% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Karpaty Lviv produced 1.05 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 19
- On target
- 8
- 9
- Inside the box
- 5
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.13
Recent form
1.15 xG created 1.67 xGA
- W 0.98 created, 1.06 conceded against Kudrivka
- L 1.43 created, 1.74 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- L 0.86 created, 2.29 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 0.78 created, 2.46 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- L 0.37 created, 1.64 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- D 2.47 created, 0.83 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
2.11 xG created 1.69 xGA
- W 2.38 created, 1.43 conceded against Veres Rivne
- W 3.67 created, 2.34 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- W 1.16 created, 1.60 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- W 1.96 created, 2.83 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- D 1.42 created, 0.37 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- L 2.05 created, 1.58 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +6.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.30 | +2.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +2.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolos Kovalivka | 31.6% | 28.7% | +3.0 pp | 3.16 |
| Draw | 31.2% | 26.9% | +4.3 pp | 3.21 |
| Karpaty Lviv | 37.2% | 44.4% | −7.2 pp | 2.69 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 50.0% | +8.3 pp | 1.71 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.7% | 50.0% | −8.3 pp | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | 76.6% | +0.5 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 23.4% | −0.5 pp | 4.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 52.6% | −4.0 pp | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 47.4% | +4.0 pp | 1.95 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kolos Kovalivka sample
- 20 matches
- Karpaty Lviv sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.