Karpaty Lviv 1:1 Veres Rivne: xG & match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:30

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Match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Karpaty Lviv Home 0.62 xG

Veres Rivne Away 1.31 xG

11 Veres Rivne had the better chances, but it finished level

Karpaty Lviv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Karpaty Lviv's attack: 0.62 xG against 1.95 projected (−1.33). Veres Rivne produced 1.31 xG against 1.04 projected (+0.27).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Karpaty Lviv: 58%
Draw: 25% What happened
Veres Rivne: 17%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Karpaty Lviv 1.95 0.62 -1.33

Veres Rivne 1.04 1.31 +0.27

Karpaty Lviv produced 1.33 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Karpaty Lviv Veres Rivne

Shots: 5; 18
On target: 1; 5
Inside the box: 2; 9
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Karpaty Lviv

2.11 xG created 1.64 xGA

W 3.67 created, 2.34 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
W 1.16 created, 1.60 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
W 1.96 created, 2.83 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
D 1.42 created, 0.37 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
L 2.05 created, 1.58 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
W 2.39 created, 1.13 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka

Veres Rivne

1.18 xG created 2.27 xGA

L 2.24 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
L 1.43 created, 2.38 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
L 0.20 created, 3.80 conceded against Metalist 1925
L 1.63 created, 2.77 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
D 0.68 created, 2.05 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
D 0.87 created, 1.08 conceded against Zoria Luhansk

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Karpaty Lviv: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Karpaty Lviv against Veres Rivne before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	2.20	+34.0%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	+15.7%	Lost
Veres Rivne to win	6.50	+9.5%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+7.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Karpaty Lviv	58.1%	63.7%	−5.7 pp	1.72
Draw	25.1%	22.9%	+2.2 pp	3.99
Veres Rivne	16.8%	13.4%	+3.5 pp	5.94

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.9%	42.1%	+18.8 pp	1.64
Both teams not to score	39.1%	57.9%	−18.8 pp	2.56
Over 1.5 goals	83.8%	72.0%	+11.8 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.2%	28.0%	−11.8 pp	6.16
Over 2.5 goals	59.4%	47.3%	+12.1 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.6%	52.7%	−12.1 pp	2.46

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Karpaty Lviv sample: 20 matches
Veres Rivne sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.