Friday, 23/10/2026 at 12:00
Full timeDynamo Kyiv 3:1 Kudrivka
Dynamo Kyiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 65%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Kudrivka's attack: 1.44 xG against 0.81 projected (+0.63).
The model against the result
- Dynamo Kyiv
- 65% What happened
- Draw
- 23%
- Kudrivka
- 11%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Kudrivka produced 0.63 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 13
- On target
- 7
- 5
- Inside the box
- 9
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.11
Recent form
1.43 xG created 0.98 xGA
- L 2.62 created, 1.42 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- D 1.76 created, 0.49 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- W 1.05 created, 1.04 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- W 1.01 created, 0.68 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- W 0.87 created, 0.88 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- L 1.28 created, 1.38 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
1.55 xG created 2.46 xGA
- L 0.97 created, 2.41 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- L 1.06 created, 5.21 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- L 1.11 created, 1.96 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- L 1.58 created, 1.51 conceded against Veres Rivne
- L 2.25 created, 1.52 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- W 2.31 created, 2.14 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 qualified edges flagged2 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Kyiv at most 1 goal | 4.33 | +65.0% | Lost |
| Draw | 6.50 | +51.7% | Lost |
| Kudrivka to win | 13.00 | +47.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | +23.0% | Lost |
| Dynamo Kyiv not to score | 10.00 | +12.8% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +12.7% | Lost |
| Kudrivka to score | 1.91 | +12.4% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | +7.3% | Won |
| Kudrivka 2+ goals | 5.50 | +3.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Kyiv | 65.3% | 79.1% | −13.8 pp | 1.53 |
| Draw | 23.3% | 13.9% | +9.4 pp | 4.28 |
| Kudrivka | 11.4% | 7.0% | +4.4 pp | 8.81 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Kyiv to score | 88.7% | 90.7% | −1.9 pp | 1.13 |
| Dynamo Kyiv not to score | 11.3% | 9.3% | +1.9 pp | 8.86 |
| Kudrivka to score | 58.9% | 48.5% | +10.4 pp | 1.70 |
| Kudrivka not to score | 41.1% | 51.5% | −10.4 pp | 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 46.3% | +7.3 pp | 1.86 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.4% | 53.7% | −7.3 pp | 2.16 |
| Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals | 61.9% | 78.3% | −16.4 pp | 1.62 |
| Dynamo Kyiv at most 1 goal | 38.1% | 21.7% | +16.4 pp | 2.63 |
| Kudrivka 2+ goals | 18.9% | 17.0% | +1.9 pp | 5.29 |
| Kudrivka at most 1 goal | 81.1% | 83.0% | −1.9 pp | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | 84.4% | −3.2 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.8% | 15.6% | +3.2 pp | 5.32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 66.3% | −11.0 pp | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 33.7% | +11.0 pp | 2.24 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dynamo Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Kudrivka sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.