Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 12:00
Full timeKudrivka 2:3 Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Kolos Kovalivka's attack: 1.96 xG against 1.51 projected (+0.45).
The model against the result
- Kudrivka
- 25%
- Draw
- 30%
- Kolos Kovalivka
- 45% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Kolos Kovalivka produced 0.45 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 14
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 3
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.14
Recent form
1.09 xG created 2.59 xGA
- D 2.51 created, 2.50 conceded against Ahrobiznes Volochysk
- L 0.29 created, 2.80 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- D 0.67 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- D 1.03 created, 1.48 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 0.97 created, 2.41 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- L 1.06 created, 5.21 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
1.17 xG created 1.89 xGA
- L 1.43 created, 1.74 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- L 0.86 created, 2.29 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 0.78 created, 2.46 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- L 0.37 created, 1.64 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- D 2.47 created, 0.83 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- L 1.13 created, 2.39 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | +22.3% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.40 | +19.7% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | +9.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kudrivka | 25.2% | 26.4% | −1.2 pp | 3.97 |
| Draw | 30.2% | 29.0% | +1.2 pp | 3.31 |
| Kolos Kovalivka | 44.6% | 44.6% | −0.0 pp | 2.24 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 44.0% | +14.3 pp | 1.72 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.7% | 56.0% | −14.3 pp | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | 66.3% | +11.7 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 33.7% | −11.7 pp | 4.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 38.5% | +11.4 pp | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 61.5% | −11.4 pp | 2.00 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kudrivka sample
- 20 matches
- Kolos Kovalivka sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.