Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:00
27d 11h to kick-offFC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih – Dynamo Kyiv
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 20%
- Draw
- 27%
- Dynamo Kyiv
- 53%
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | Draw | Dynamo Kyiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.02 | 3.73 | 1.88 |
- Total goals
- 2.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Dynamo Kyiv
53% Dynamo Kyiv to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 14th
- Dynamo Kyiv attack v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 7th
- Dynamo Kyiv defence v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs -0.76
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.10 – 1.82
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih v Dynamo Kyiv
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | Dynamo Kyiv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.36 · 9th from 4 matches | (better) 1.81 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 2.32 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 0.94 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.96 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) +0.87 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 0.83 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) 2.02 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.76 | (better) +0.87 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Dynamo Kyiv clean sheet
- 30%
- Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 1:2
- 11.6%
- 0:2
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih sample
- 20 matches
- Dynamo Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Dynamo Kyiv
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.