Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:00
27d 9h to kick-offKarpaty Lviv – Kudrivka
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Karpaty Lviv
- 58%
- Draw
- 26%
- Kudrivka
- 17%
| Karpaty Lviv | Draw | Kudrivka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.74 | 3.89 | 5.97 |
- Total goals
- 2.88
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Karpaty Lviv
58% Karpaty Lviv to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 16th
- Karpaty Lviv attack v Kudrivka defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 15th
- Karpaty Lviv defence v Kudrivka attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.13 vs -1.65
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.88 – 1.00
- Karpaty Lviv v Kudrivka
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Karpaty Lviv | Kudrivka |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.90 · 4th | 0.86 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.59 · 10th | 2.50 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.30 · 7th | -1.65 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.58 · 7th | 0.54 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.13 | -1.65 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Karpaty Lviv clean sheet
- 34%
- Karpaty Lviv 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.9%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 10.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Karpaty Lviv sample
- 20 matches
- Kudrivka sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Karpaty Lviv
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Kudrivka
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.