AC Oulu 0:0 SJK: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

AC Oulu Home 0.77 xG

SJK Away 0.37 xG

00 AC Oulu had the better chances, but it finished level

SJK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was SJK's attack: 0.37 xG against 1.56 projected (−1.19). AC Oulu produced 0.77 xG against 1.39 projected (−0.62).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AC Oulu: 31%
Draw: 29% What happened
SJK: 40%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AC Oulu 1.39 0.77 -0.62

SJK 1.56 0.37 -1.19

SJK produced 1.19 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AC Oulu SJK

Shots: 6; 7
On target: 1; 4
Inside the box: 5; 2
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.05

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AC Oulu

1.14 xG created 1.61 xGA

L 0.63 created, 1.90 conceded against TPS
L 1.19 created, 1.33 conceded against IF Gnistan
D 2.72 created, 2.55 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
W 1.41 created, 1.27 conceded against Ilves
L 0.22 created, 1.66 conceded against HJK
W 0.68 created, 0.93 conceded against FF Jaro

SJK

1.55 xG created 2.11 xGA

L 0.80 created, 3.31 conceded against KuPS
L 1.42 created, 1.61 conceded against FF Jaro
W 1.41 created, 1.92 conceded against HJK
D 2.63 created, 1.02 conceded against IF Gnistan
L 0.85 created, 2.28 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 2.19 created, 2.54 conceded against FC Lahti

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AC Oulu: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged3 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AC Oulu against SJK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SJK to win	3.20	+27.4%	Lost
SJK 2+ goals	2.50	+19.7%	Lost
AC Oulu not to score	5.00	+10.8%	Won
AC Oulu at most 1 goal	1.83	+7.3%	Won
SJK to score	1.30	+6.2%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+3.5%	Won
Both teams to score	1.57	+2.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+1.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Oulu	31.4%	45.9%	−14.4 pp	3.18
Draw	28.8%	25.5%	+3.3 pp	3.48
SJK	39.8%	28.7%	+11.1 pp	2.51

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Oulu to score	77.8%	81.1%	−3.2 pp	1.28
AC Oulu not to score	22.2%	18.9%	+3.2 pp	4.51
SJK to score	81.7%	72.3%	+9.4 pp	1.22
SJK not to score	18.3%	27.7%	−9.4 pp	5.47
Both teams to score	65.2%	58.9%	+6.3 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.8%	41.1%	−6.3 pp	2.87
AC Oulu 2+ goals	41.5%	50.0%	−8.5 pp	2.41
AC Oulu at most 1 goal	58.5%	50.0%	+8.5 pp	1.71
SJK 2+ goals	47.9%	37.5%	+10.4 pp	2.09
SJK at most 1 goal	52.1%	62.5%	−10.4 pp	1.92
Over 1.5 goals	83.4%	76.6%	+6.8 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.6%	23.4%	−6.8 pp	6.02
Over 2.5 goals	58.4%	55.3%	+3.1 pp	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.6%	44.7%	−3.1 pp	2.40

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AC Oulu sample: 20 matches
SJK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.