xgEdge

Expected goals

KTP expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Veikkausliiga · after 29 matches · updated 1 Oct

KTP's attacking and defensive expected goals in Veikkausliiga 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

KTP xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.20 xG per match
#11/12
Attack (xG per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 HJK 2.16
#2 SJK 2.03
#3 Ilves 1.95
#4 Inter Turku 1.94
#5 KuPS 1.83
#6 FF Jaro 1.45
#7 IF Gnistan 1.38
#8 VPS 1.36
#9 FC Haka 1.31
#10 AC Oulu 1.26
#11 KTP 1.20
#12 IFK Mariehamn 1.00
League avg
1.60
Total
34.83 29 matches
Defence
2.09 xGA per match
#11/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Inter Turku 1.12
#2 KuPS 1.22
#3 Ilves 1.28
#4 HJK 1.47
#5 AC Oulu 1.49
#6 VPS 1.49
#7 SJK 1.56
#8 FC Haka 1.61
#9 FF Jaro 1.96
#10 IF Gnistan 1.99
#11 KTP 2.09
#12 IFK Mariehamn 2.10
League avg
1.60
Total
60.70 29 matches
xG difference
-0.89 xGD per match
#11/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter Turku +0.82
#2 HJK +0.69
#3 Ilves +0.67
#4 KuPS +0.61
#5 SJK +0.47
#6 VPS -0.13
#7 AC Oulu -0.23
#8 FC Haka -0.30
#9 FF Jaro -0.51
#10 IF Gnistan -0.60
#11 KTP -0.89
#12 IFK Mariehamn -1.10
League avg
0.00
Total
-25.87 29 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.93 xPts per match
#11/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Inter Turku 1.99
#2 Ilves 1.75
#3 KuPS 1.73
#4 HJK 1.70
#5 SJK 1.65
#6 VPS 1.27
#7 AC Oulu 1.25
#8 FC Haka 1.22
#9 FF Jaro 1.15
#10 IF Gnistan 1.06
#11 KTP 0.93
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.73
League avg
1.40
Total
26.84 vs 21 actual pts

What the xG says

KTP's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Veikkausliiga. They rank #11 for xG difference at -0.89 per match, from about average shot volume at the league's lowest chance quality. Their 33 goals are 1.83 below 34.83 xG, while 21 points are 5.84 below 26.84 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 4.45 xG from penalties
33 34.83 -1.83 scored 1.83 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
67 60.70 +6.30 conceded 6.30 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
21 26.84 -5.84 5.84 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

KTP are 1.83 goals below their xG after 29 matches. The gap was widest at -2.67, against IFK Mariehamn on Sat 04/10.

Goals
33
xG
34.83
Gap
-1.83
Sat 05/04 Fri 11/04 Sat 19/04 Sat 26/04 Fri 02/05 Sat 10/05 Sat 17/05 Fri 23/05 Sat 31/05 Sat 14/06 Thu 19/06 Sat 28/06 Wed 02/07 Mon 07/07 Sun 13/07 Fri 18/07 Sat 26/07 Sun 03/08 Sat 09/08 Sat 16/08 Fri 22/08 Sun 31/08 Sat 13/09 Fri 19/09 Sat 27/09 Sat 04/10 Sat 18/10 Thu 23/10 Sun 26/10 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 -1.06 -0.36 -1.29 -0.44 +0.26 -0.49 -0.81 -1.32 -1.51 -1.11 -1.75 -0.06 +0.11 -1.06 +0.32 +1.24 +3.20 +1.59 +0.46 -0.30 +0.34 -0.01 -0.99 -1.66 -1.40 -2.67 -2.28 -2.42 -1.83 -1.06 +0.70 -0.93 +0.85 +0.70 -0.75 -0.32 -0.51 -0.19 +0.40 -0.64 +1.69 +0.17 -1.17 +1.38 +0.92 +1.96 -1.61 -1.13 -0.76 +0.64 -0.35 -0.98 -0.67 +0.26 -1.27 +0.39 -0.14 +0.59 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
KTP: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 05/04 SJK 0 1.06 -1.06 -1.06
Fri 11/04 VPS 2 1.30 +0.70 -0.36
Sat 19/04 Ilves 0 0.93 -0.93 -1.29
Sat 26/04 FF Jaro 3 2.15 +0.85 -0.44
Fri 02/05 AC Oulu 1 0.30 +0.70 +0.26
Sat 10/05 KuPS 0 0.75 -0.75 -0.49
Sat 17/05 HJK 1 1.32 -0.32 -0.81
Fri 23/05 FC Haka 0 0.51 -0.51 -1.32
Sat 31/05 IFK Mariehamn 2 2.19 -0.19 -1.51
Sat 14/06 IF Gnistan 1 0.60 +0.40 -1.11
Thu 19/06 Inter Turku 0 0.64 -0.64 -1.75
Sat 28/06 FF Jaro 3 1.31 +1.69 -0.06
Wed 02/07 Ilves 1 0.83 +0.17 +0.11
Mon 07/07 IF Gnistan 0 1.17 -1.17 -1.06
Sun 13/07 AC Oulu 2 0.62 +1.38 +0.32
Fri 18/07 Inter Turku 2 1.08 +0.92 +1.24
Sat 26/07 FC Haka 3 1.04 +1.96 +3.20
Sun 03/08 SJK 0 1.61 -1.61 +1.59
Sat 09/08 KuPS 0 1.13 -1.13 +0.46
Sat 16/08 IFK Mariehamn 0 0.76 -0.76 -0.30
Fri 22/08 VPS 2 1.36 +0.64 +0.34
Sun 31/08 HJK 1 1.35 -0.35 -0.01
Sat 13/09 VPS 1 1.98 -0.98 -0.99
Fri 19/09 FF Jaro 1 1.67 -0.67 -1.66
Sat 27/09 AC Oulu 2 1.74 +0.26 -1.40
Sat 04/10 IFK Mariehamn 1 2.27 -1.27 -2.67
Sat 18/10 FC Haka 2 1.61 +0.39 -2.28
Thu 23/10 TPS 0 0.14 -0.14 -2.42
Sun 26/10 TPS 2 1.41 +0.59 -1.83

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

KTP xG trend

Current form +0.29 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 8 of 29 matches. The worst was against KuPS on Sat 10/05 (-3.60).

npxG · last 6
1.35
npxGA · last 6
1.06
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.40 Sat 05/04 -1.18 Fri 11/04 -2.83 Sat 19/04 -0.14 Sat 26/04 -1.74 Fri 02/05 -3.60 Sat 10/05 -3.10 Sat 17/05 -0.97 Fri 23/05 +1.35 Sat 31/05 -1.46 Sat 14/06 -2.87 Thu 19/06 -1.45 Sat 28/06 -1.58 Wed 02/07 +0.06 Mon 07/07 -1.08 Sun 13/07 -0.97 Fri 18/07 +0.38 Sat 26/07 -2.25 Sun 03/08 -0.30 Sat 09/08 -0.30 Sat 16/08 -1.76 Fri 22/08 -2.77 Sun 31/08 +0.83 Sat 13/09 +0.64 Fri 19/09 +0.50 Sat 27/09 +1.74 Sat 04/10 +0.77 Sat 18/10 -1.88 Thu 23/10 -0.02 Sun 26/10 -0.94 season avg
KTP: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 05/04 SJK 1.06 2.46 -1.40 -1.40
Fri 11/04 VPS 1.30 2.48 -1.18 -1.29
Sat 19/04 Ilves 0.93 3.76 -2.83 -1.80
Sat 26/04 FF Jaro 1.39 1.53 -0.14 -1.39
Fri 02/05 AC Oulu 0.42 2.16 -1.74 -1.46
Sat 10/05 KuPS 0.75 4.35 -3.60 -1.81
Sat 17/05 HJK 0.56 3.66 -3.10 -2.00
Fri 23/05 FC Haka 0.50 1.47 -0.97 -1.87
Sat 31/05 IFK Mariehamn 2.19 0.84 +1.35 -1.51
Sat 14/06 IF Gnistan 0.60 2.06 -1.46 -1.51
Thu 19/06 Inter Turku 0.64 3.51 -2.87 -1.63
Sat 28/06 FF Jaro 0.55 2.00 -1.45 -1.62
Wed 02/07 Ilves 0.83 2.41 -1.58 -1.61
Mon 07/07 IF Gnistan 1.17 1.11 +0.06 -1.49
Sun 13/07 AC Oulu 0.62 1.70 -1.08 -1.47
Fri 18/07 Inter Turku 1.08 2.05 -0.97 -1.43
Sat 26/07 FC Haka 1.04 0.66 +0.38 -1.33
Sun 03/08 SJK 0.85 3.10 -2.25 -1.38
Sat 09/08 KuPS 1.13 1.43 -0.30 -1.32
Sat 16/08 IFK Mariehamn 0.76 1.06 -0.30 -1.27
Fri 22/08 VPS 0.60 2.36 -1.76 -1.29
Sun 31/08 HJK 1.35 4.12 -2.77 -1.36
Sat 13/09 VPS 1.98 1.15 +0.83 -1.27
Fri 19/09 FF Jaro 1.67 1.03 +0.64 -1.19
Sat 27/09 AC Oulu 0.98 0.48 +0.50 -1.12
Sat 04/10 IFK Mariehamn 2.27 0.53 +1.74 -1.01
Sat 18/10 FC Haka 1.61 0.84 +0.77 -0.94
Thu 23/10 TPS 0.14 2.02 -1.88 -0.98
Sun 26/10 TPS 1.41 1.43 -0.02 -0.94

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.05 npxG and 1.99 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 9 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
−0.05 xG vs league average
Over 29 league matches
Last 5
number 7 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
−0.23 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.05 xG vs league average · over 29 matches · tied number 9 hardest of 12

  1. TPS Home +0.10
  2. TPS Away +0.10
  3. FC Haka Away −0.44
  4. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.79
  5. AC Oulu Away −0.12
  6. FF Jaro Home −0.47
  7. VPS Away −0.30
  8. HJK Home +0.49
  9. VPS Away −0.30
  10. IFK Mariehamn Away −0.79
  11. KuPS Home +0.57
  12. SJK Away +0.45
  13. FC Haka Away −0.44
  14. Inter Turku Home +0.49
  15. AC Oulu Away −0.12
  16. IF Gnistan Home −0.13
  17. Ilves Away +0.45
  18. FF Jaro Home −0.47
  19. Inter Turku Away +0.49
  20. IF Gnistan Away −0.13
  21. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.79
  22. FC Haka Home −0.44
  23. HJK Away +0.49
  24. KuPS Away +0.57
  25. AC Oulu Home −0.12
  26. FF Jaro Away −0.47
  27. Ilves Home +0.45
  28. VPS Home −0.30
  29. SJK Home +0.45

Last 5

−0.23 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 7 hardest of 12

  1. TPS Home +0.10
  2. TPS Away +0.10
  3. FC Haka Away −0.44
  4. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.79
  5. AC Oulu Away −0.12

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

KTP shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. KTP take 11.8 shots a match (league 12.3) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #6 in Veikkausliiga for volume and #12 for quality. 60% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.8 shots per match
#6/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 HJK 15.3
#2 Inter Turku 14.2
#3 KuPS 14.0
#4 SJK 13.9
#5 Ilves 13.7
#6 KTP 11.8
#7 IF Gnistan 11.5
#8 FC Haka 11.1
#9 FF Jaro 10.8
#10 VPS 10.6
#11 AC Oulu 10.1
#12 IFK Mariehamn 9.1
League avg
12.3
Total
343 shots from 29 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#12/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SJK 0.14
#2 FF Jaro 0.13
#3 HJK 0.13
#4 Ilves 0.13
#5 Inter Turku 0.13
#6 KuPS 0.12
#7 VPS 0.12
#8 AC Oulu 0.12
#9 IF Gnistan 0.11
#10 FC Haka 0.11
#11 IFK Mariehamn 0.10
#12 KTP 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
30.38 npxG from 343 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.0 shots per match
#10/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Ilves 9.7
#2 Inter Turku 10.1
#3 KuPS 10.5
#4 AC Oulu 10.6
#5 HJK 10.9
#6 SJK 11.8
#7 VPS 12.6
#8 FC Haka 12.6
#9 IF Gnistan 13.8
#10 KTP 15.0
#11 FF Jaro 15.1
#12 IFK Mariehamn 16.1
League avg
12.3
Total
435 shots allowed from 29 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#11/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 KuPS 0.10
#2 Inter Turku 0.11
#3 VPS 0.11
#4 SJK 0.11
#5 FC Haka 0.12
#6 IFK Mariehamn 0.12
#7 FF Jaro 0.12
#8 AC Oulu 0.13
#9 HJK 0.13
#10 Ilves 0.13
#11 KTP 0.13
#12 IF Gnistan 0.13
League avg
0.12
Total
57.76 npxGA from 435 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

60% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 207 of 343 shots over 29 matches

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 275 of 435 shots allowed over 29 matches

How the shot figures are made →

KTP home and away xG

KTP per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 14 15
xG / match 1.26 1.14
xGA / match 2.02 2.16
xGD / match -0.76 -1.02
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.97 0.88

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every KTP match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
29
xG / match
1.20
xGA / match
2.09
xGD / match
-0.89
Points
21 of 87
  1. Sun 26/10 TPS H xG 1.41 xGA 2.95 P xGD -1.54
  2. Thu 23/10 TPS A xG 0.14 xGA 2.02 xGD -1.88
  3. Sat 18/10 FC Haka A xG 1.61 xGA 0.84 xGD +0.77
  4. Sat 04/10 IFK Mariehamn H Best underlying xG 2.27 xGA 0.53 xGD +1.74
  5. Sat 27/09 AC Oulu A xG 1.74 P xGA 0.48 xGD +1.26
  6. Fri 19/09 FF Jaro H xG 1.67 xGA 1.03 xGD +0.64
  7. Sat 13/09 VPS A xG 1.98 xGA 1.15 xGD +0.83
  8. Sun 31/08 HJK H xG 1.35 xGA 4.12 xGD -2.77
  9. Fri 22/08 VPS A xG 1.36 P xGA 2.36 xGD -1.00
  10. Sat 16/08 IFK Mariehamn A xG 0.76 xGA 1.06 xGD -0.30
  11. Sat 09/08 KuPS H xG 1.13 xGA 1.42 xGD -0.29
  12. Sun 03/08 SJK A xG 1.61 P xGA 3.10 xGD -1.49
  13. Sat 26/07 FC Haka A xG 1.04 xGA 1.42 P xGD -0.38
  14. Fri 18/07 Inter Turku H xG 1.08 xGA 1.94 xGD -0.86
  15. Sun 13/07 AC Oulu A xG 0.62 xGA 1.71 xGD -1.09
  16. Mon 07/07 IF Gnistan H xG 1.17 xGA 1.11 xGD +0.06
  17. Wed 02/07 Ilves A xG 0.83 xGA 2.42 xGD -1.59
  18. Sat 28/06 FF Jaro H xG 1.31 P xGA 2.00 xGD -0.69
  19. Thu 19/06 Inter Turku A xG 0.64 xGA 3.51 xGD -2.87
  20. Sat 14/06 IF Gnistan A xG 0.60 xGA 2.06 xGD -1.46
  21. Sat 31/05 IFK Mariehamn H xG 2.19 xGA 0.84 xGD +1.35
  22. Fri 23/05 FC Haka H xG 0.51 xGA 1.47 xGD -0.96
  23. Sat 17/05 HJK A xG 1.32 P xGA 4.42 P xGD -3.10
  24. Sat 10/05 KuPS A Weakest underlying xG 0.75 xGA 4.35 xGD -3.60
  25. Fri 02/05 AC Oulu H xG 0.30 xGA 2.16 xGD -1.86
  26. Sat 26/04 FF Jaro A xG 2.15 P xGA 1.53 xGD +0.62
  27. Sat 19/04 Ilves H xG 0.93 xGA 3.76 xGD -2.83
  28. Fri 11/04 VPS H xG 1.30 xGA 2.48 xGD -1.18
  29. Sat 05/04 SJK H xG 1.06 xGA 2.46 xGD -1.40

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.42. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

KTP in Veikkausliiga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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