TPS 0:0 SJK: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Tuesday, 08/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

TPS Home 0.70 xG

SJK Away 1.36 xG

00 SJK had the better chances, but it finished level

SJK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was TPS's attack: 0.70 xG against 1.62 projected (−0.92). SJK produced 1.36 xG against 1.62 projected (−0.26).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

TPS: 36%
Draw: 27% What happened
SJK: 36%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

TPS 1.62 0.70 -0.92

SJK 1.62 1.36 -0.26

TPS produced 0.92 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

TPS SJK

Shots: 11; 11
On target: 2; 1
Inside the box: 7; 9
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

TPS

1.54 xG created 2.12 xGA

L 0.98 created, 3.33 conceded against Ilves
L 1.25 created, 2.36 conceded against HJK
W 1.73 created, 2.08 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
D 2.01 created, 1.69 conceded against KuPS
W 2.26 created, 0.97 conceded against VPS
D 1.03 created, 2.27 conceded against Inter Turku

SJK

1.48 xG created 1.69 xGA

L 1.42 created, 1.61 conceded against FF Jaro
W 1.41 created, 1.92 conceded against HJK
D 2.63 created, 1.02 conceded against IF Gnistan
L 0.85 created, 2.28 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 2.19 created, 2.54 conceded against FC Lahti
D 0.37 created, 0.77 conceded against AC Oulu

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

TPS: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on TPS against SJK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+12.5%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.70	+10.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+6.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
TPS	36.4%	35.8%	+0.5 pp	2.75
Draw	27.2%	26.1%	+1.1 pp	3.67
SJK	36.4%	38.1%	−1.7 pp	2.75

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	69.7%	57.7%	+12.0 pp	1.44
Both teams not to score	30.3%	42.3%	−12.0 pp	3.30
Over 1.5 goals	86.9%	76.6%	+10.3 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.1%	23.4%	−10.3 pp	7.65
Over 2.5 goals	64.8%	55.3%	+9.5 pp	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	35.2%	44.7%	−9.5 pp	2.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
TPS sample: 20 matches
SJK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.