VPS 0:1 FC Lahti: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

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FC Lahti Away

FC Lahti were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 1–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

VPS: 34%
Draw: 30%
FC Lahti: 36% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

VPS

1.14 xG created 1.90 xGA

L 0.64 created, 2.21 conceded against HJK
L 1.08 created, 2.42 conceded against KuPS
L 0.99 created, 0.87 conceded against Inter Turku
W 1.98 created, 2.97 conceded against FF Jaro
L 0.97 created, 2.26 conceded against TPS
W 1.18 created, 0.66 conceded against Ilves

FC Lahti

1.94 xG created 1.47 xGA

W 3.36 created, 0.41 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 1.38 created, 1.61 conceded against Ilves
W 1.89 created, 0.42 conceded against FF Jaro
D 1.78 created, 3.02 conceded against Inter Turku
L 0.71 created, 1.17 conceded against KuPS
W 2.54 created, 2.19 conceded against SJK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

VPS: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

FC Lahti 1:1 VPS 18/05/2026 xG 1.25 – 1.31

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on VPS against FC Lahti before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Lahti to win	3.20	+16.6%	Won
FC Lahti 2+ goals	2.63	+12.4%	Lost
VPS at most 1 goal	1.80	+6.6%	Won
FC Lahti to score	1.33	+5.0%	Won
Draw	3.40	+1.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+1.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
VPS	33.7%	44.6%	−10.8 pp	2.96
Draw	29.8%	26.9%	+3.0 pp	3.35
FC Lahti	36.4%	28.6%	+7.9 pp	2.75

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
VPS to score	77.3%	78.3%	−1.0 pp	1.29
VPS not to score	22.7%	21.7%	+1.0 pp	4.41
FC Lahti to score	78.7%	70.9%	+7.8 pp	1.27
FC Lahti not to score	21.3%	29.1%	−7.8 pp	4.71
Both teams to score	62.6%	57.7%	+4.9 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.4%	42.3%	−4.9 pp	2.67
VPS 2+ goals	40.8%	48.5%	−7.8 pp	2.45
VPS at most 1 goal	59.2%	51.5%	+7.8 pp	1.69
FC Lahti 2+ goals	42.8%	35.5%	+7.3 pp	2.33
FC Lahti at most 1 goal	57.2%	64.5%	−7.3 pp	1.75
Over 1.5 goals	81.0%	76.6%	+4.4 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	19.0%	23.4%	−4.4 pp	5.26
Over 2.5 goals	54.5%	53.9%	+0.5 pp	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	45.5%	46.1%	−0.5 pp	2.20

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
VPS sample: 20 matches
FC Lahti sample: 19 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.