Halmstads BK 2:1 AIK: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Halmstads BK Home 1.91 xG

AIK Away 2.57 xG

21 The result went against the chances

AIK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Halmstads BK won 2–1. The biggest difference was AIK's attack: 2.57 xG against 2.04 projected (+0.53).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Halmstads BK: 36% What happened
Draw: 24%
AIK: 40%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Halmstads BK 1.95 1.91 -0.04

AIK 2.04 2.57 +0.53

AIK produced 0.53 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Halmstads BK AIK

Shots: 18; 16
On target: 10; 3
Inside the box: 12; 10
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.16

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Halmstads BK

1.39 xG created 2.53 xGA

L 0.90 created, 3.81 conceded against GAIS
L 1.21 created, 2.78 conceded against BK Häcken
D 2.67 created, 2.09 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.31 created, 1.94 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 0.80 created, 2.83 conceded against Degerfors IF
L 1.42 created, 1.76 conceded against IFK Göteborg

AIK

2.18 xG created 2.85 xGA

L 1.35 created, 2.36 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.96 created, 2.39 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.49 created, 2.26 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
W 1.91 created, 4.26 conceded against Hammarby IF
L 3.23 created, 3.68 conceded against Västerås SK
D 3.15 created, 2.14 conceded against Mjällby AIF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Halmstads BK: 2 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Halmstads BK against AIK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.67	+32.0%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	+29.3%	Won
Halmstads BK to win	3.25	+18.2%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+10.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Halmstads BK	36.4%	29.0%	+7.4 pp	2.75
Draw	23.8%	26.2%	−2.4 pp	4.21
AIK	39.9%	44.9%	−5.0 pp	2.51

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	79.2%	55.7%	+23.4 pp	1.26
Both teams not to score	20.8%	44.3%	−23.4 pp	4.80
Over 1.5 goals	93.4%	79.2%	+14.2 pp	1.07
Under 1.5 goals	6.6%	20.8%	−14.2 pp	15.08
Over 2.5 goals	78.3%	57.1%	+21.2 pp	1.28
Under 2.5 goals	21.7%	42.9%	−21.2 pp	4.62

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Halmstads BK sample: 20 matches
AIK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.