Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:30
Full time1. FC Köln 1:1 SV Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. It finished 1–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 11' Linton Maina 1. FC Köln · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
- 69' Niclas Füllkrug SV Werder Bremen · 0.24 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- 1. FC Köln
- 53%
- Draw
- 26% What happened
- SV Werder Bremen
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 14
- On target
- 6
- 5
- Inside the box
- 9
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.36
- 0.50
- Set-piece xG
- 0.45
- 0.46
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.83 for 1. FC Köln and 0.95 for SV Werder Bremen.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 2.59 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- 1. FC Köln
- SV Werder Bremen
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.96 xG created 2.04 xGA
- L 3.04 created, 1.33 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- D 1.75 created, 1.15 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
- L 1.17 created, 1.36 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
- L 0.98 created, 3.05 conceded against FC Bayern München
- W 1.95 created, 1.88 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- L 2.86 created, 3.47 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
0.88 xG created 2.02 xGA
- D 0.93 created, 1.82 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- L 1.35 created, 2.57 conceded against FC Augsburg
- L 1.07 created, 1.52 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- L 0.49 created, 2.74 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
- L 0.48 created, 1.94 conceded against SC Freiburg
- W 0.95 created, 1.50 conceded against RB Leipzig
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen at most 1 goal | 1.57 | +7.8% | Won |
| 1. FC Köln to win | 2.00 | +6.6% | Lost |
| SV Werder Bremen not to score | 3.50 | +4.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | +3.2% | Won |
| Draw | 3.80 | +0.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 53.3% | 47.3% | +6.0 pp | 1.88 |
| Draw | 26.5% | 24.9% | +1.6 pp | 3.78 |
| SV Werder Bremen | 20.3% | 27.8% | −7.6 pp | 4.94 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln to score | 86.4% | 82.8% | +3.7 pp | 1.16 |
| 1. FC Köln not to score | 13.6% | 17.2% | −3.7 pp | 7.38 |
| SV Werder Bremen to score | 70.3% | 73.1% | −2.8 pp | 1.42 |
| SV Werder Bremen not to score | 29.7% | 26.9% | +2.8 pp | 3.37 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | 62.5% | −0.2 pp | 1.61 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.7% | 37.5% | +0.2 pp | 2.65 |
| 1. FC Köln 2+ goals | 57.0% | 53.7% | +3.3 pp | 1.76 |
| 1. FC Köln at most 1 goal | 43.0% | 46.3% | −3.3 pp | 2.32 |
| SV Werder Bremen 2+ goals | 31.4% | 41.1% | −9.8 pp | 3.19 |
| SV Werder Bremen at most 1 goal | 68.6% | 58.9% | +9.8 pp | 1.46 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | 81.1% | +2.4 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.6% | 18.9% | −2.4 pp | 6.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 62.0% | −3.3 pp | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 38.0% | +3.3 pp | 2.42 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FC Köln sample
- 20 matches
- SV Werder Bremen sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.