Friday, 04/09/2026 at 20:30
Full timeVfB Stuttgart 4:1 1. FC Köln
VfB Stuttgart were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was VfB Stuttgart's attack: 3.47 xG against 1.86 projected (+1.61). 1. FC Köln produced 2.86 xG against 1.27 projected (+1.59).
Goals
- 39' Bilal El Khannouss VfB Stuttgart · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
- 60' Grischa Prömel VfB Stuttgart · 0.34 xG chance 2–0
- 75' Ermedin Demirović VfB Stuttgart · 0.05 xG chance 3–0
- 81' Marius Bülter 1. FC Köln · 0.94 xG chance 3–1
- 90' Josha Vagnoman VfB Stuttgart · 0.03 xG chance 4–1
The model against the result
- VfB Stuttgart
- 50% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- 1. FC Köln
- 23%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
VfB Stuttgart produced 1.61 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 18
- On target
- 8
- 5
- Inside the box
- 15
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 2.48
- 2.00
- Set-piece xG
- 0.54
- 0.89
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.04 for VfB Stuttgart and 2.94 for 1. FC Köln.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
40 shots · 5.91 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- VfB Stuttgart
- 1. FC Köln
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.65 xG created 2.53 xGA
- L 1.35 created, 4.61 conceded against FC Bayern München
- D 1.82 created, 0.93 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- D 1.57 created, 2.47 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- W 3.04 created, 0.54 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- D 1.32 created, 2.56 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
- L 0.79 created, 4.06 conceded against FC Bayern München
1.70 xG created 1.80 xGA
- D 1.33 created, 2.01 conceded against FC St. Pauli
- L 3.04 created, 1.33 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- D 1.75 created, 1.15 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
- L 1.17 created, 1.36 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
- L 0.98 created, 3.05 conceded against FC Bayern München
- W 1.95 created, 1.88 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln to win | 5.50 | +27.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.75 | +25.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | +12.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 50.3% | 63.8% | −13.5 pp | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26.4% | 19.4% | +7.0 pp | 3.78 |
| 1. FC Köln | 23.2% | 16.8% | +6.5 pp | 4.30 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 66.4% | 63.8% | +2.7 pp | 1.51 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.6% | 36.3% | −2.7 pp | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | 86.7% | −0.9 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.2% | 13.3% | +0.9 pp | 7.05 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 69.2% | −6.6 pp | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.3% | 30.8% | +6.6 pp | 2.68 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- VfB Stuttgart sample
- 20 matches
- 1. FC Köln sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.