Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
1. FC Union Berlin – Hamburger SV
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- 46%
- Draw
- 28%
- Hamburger SV
- 26%
| 1. FC Union Berlin | Draw | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.87 |
- Total goals
- 2.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans 1. FC Union Berlin
46% 1. FC Union Berlin to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 14th
- 1. FC Union Berlin attack v Hamburger SV defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 18th
- 1. FC Union Berlin defence v Hamburger SV attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.35 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.68 – 1.25
- 1. FC Union Berlin v Hamburger SV
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FC Union Berlin | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.13 · 16th from 4 matches | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.70 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.57 · 18th from 4 matches | (better) -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.70 · 18th from 4 matches | (better) 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.35 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FC Union Berlin clean sheet
- 26%
- 1. FC Union Berlin 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:2
- 7.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FC Union Berlin sample
- 20 matches
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FC Union Berlin
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.