Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:30
28d 15h to kick-offEintracht Frankfurt – Hamburger SV
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- 48%
- Draw
- 28%
- Hamburger SV
- 24%
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Draw | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.08 | 3.61 | 4.12 |
- Total goals
- 2.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Eintracht Frankfurt
48% Eintracht Frankfurt to win
- Attack
- 13th vs 14th
- Eintracht Frankfurt attack v Hamburger SV defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 18th
- Eintracht Frankfurt defence v Hamburger SV attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.03 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.73 – 1.22
- Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.98 · 6th from 4 matches | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.05 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.07 · 9th from 4 matches | -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.36 · 9th from 4 matches | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.03 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet
- 27%
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.5%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 2:0
- 7.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Eintracht Frankfurt sample
- 20 matches
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.