Friday, 18/09/2026 at 20:30
Full timeFC Bayern München 7:0 1. FC Union Berlin
FC Bayern München were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 72%. They won 7–0. The biggest difference was FC Bayern München's attack: 3.71 xG against 2.62 projected (+1.09). 1. FC Union Berlin produced 0.34 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.71).
Goals
- 18' Jamal Musiala FC Bayern München · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
- 39' Harry Kane (pen.) FC Bayern München · 0.82 xG chance 2–0
- 43' Michael Olise FC Bayern München · 0.03 xG chance 3–0
- 54' Harry Kane FC Bayern München · 0.16 xG chance 4–0
- 70' Ismael Saibari FC Bayern München · 0.35 xG chance 5–0
- 73' Michael Olise FC Bayern München · 0.97 xG chance 6–0
- 76' Michael Olise FC Bayern München · 0.05 xG chance 7–0
The model against the result
- FC Bayern München
- 72% What happened
- Draw
- 18%
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- 10%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Bayern München produced 1.09 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 3
- On target
- 13
- 2
- Inside the box
- 14
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.17
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 2.49
- 0.19
- Set-piece xG
- 0.54
- 0.13
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
FC Bayern München's shots add up to 3.85 xG and 1. FC Union Berlin's to 0.32; the published figures are 3.71 and 0.34.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 4.17 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Bayern München
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.67 xG created 1.43 xGA
- D 2.31 created, 2.59 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
- W 1.85 created, 3.04 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
- W 3.05 created, 0.98 conceded against 1. FC Köln
- W 4.06 created, 0.79 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- D 1.94 created, 0.21 conceded against FC Schalke 04
- W 2.83 created, 0.94 conceded against SV 07 Elversberg
1.95 xG created 1.84 xGA
- D 1.15 created, 1.75 conceded against 1. FC Köln
- W 2.68 created, 1.57 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
- W 3.68 created, 0.61 conceded against FC Augsburg
- D 1.84 created, 1.47 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
- L 0.39 created, 3.11 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- L 1.95 created, 2.52 conceded against FC Schalke 04
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged0 won9 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 17.00 | +204.8% | Lost |
| 1. FC Union Berlin to win | 26.00 | +167.0% | Lost |
| FC Bayern München at most 1 goal | 11.00 | +161.2% | Lost |
| FC Bayern München not to score | 34.00 | +96.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 7.00 | +87.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.00 | +71.5% | Lost |
| 1. FC Union Berlin 2+ goals | 5.00 | +40.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +23.6% | Lost |
| 1. FC Union Berlin to score | 1.80 | +22.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München | 71.8% | 90.8% | −19.0 pp | 1.39 |
| Draw | 17.9% | 5.6% | +12.4 pp | 5.58 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 10.3% | 3.6% | +6.6 pp | 9.74 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München to score | 94.2% | 97.1% | −2.9 pp | 1.06 |
| FC Bayern München not to score | 5.8% | 2.9% | +2.9 pp | 17.27 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin to score | 67.8% | 51.5% | +16.3 pp | 1.48 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin not to score | 32.2% | 48.5% | −16.3 pp | 3.10 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | 50.0% | +14.8 pp | 1.54 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.2% | 50.0% | −14.8 pp | 2.84 |
| FC Bayern München 2+ goals | 76.3% | 91.3% | −15.0 pp | 1.31 |
| FC Bayern München at most 1 goal | 23.7% | 8.7% | +15.0 pp | 4.21 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin 2+ goals | 28.2% | 18.9% | +9.2 pp | 3.55 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin at most 1 goal | 71.8% | 81.1% | −9.2 pp | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.0% | 94.9% | −3.9 pp | 1.10 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.0% | 5.1% | +3.9 pp | 11.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.3% | 86.4% | −13.1 pp | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.7% | 13.6% | +13.1 pp | 3.74 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Bayern München sample
- 20 matches
- 1. FC Union Berlin sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 31 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.