Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:30
20d 11h to kick-offSC Paderborn 07 – Hamburger SV
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SC Paderborn 07
- 48%
- Draw
- 28%
- Hamburger SV
- 24%
| SC Paderborn 07 | Draw | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.10 | 3.52 | 4.18 |
- Total goals
- 2.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans SC Paderborn 07
48% SC Paderborn 07 to win
- Attack
- 17th vs 14th
- SC Paderborn 07 attack v Hamburger SV defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 18th
- SC Paderborn 07 defence v Hamburger SV attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.77 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.66 – 1.17
- SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SC Paderborn 07 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.67 · 18th from 4 matches | (better) 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.43 · 6th from 4 matches | 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.77 · 13th from 4 matches | -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 0.72 · 16th from 4 matches | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.77 from 4 matches | (better) -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet
- 28%
- SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.1%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 2:0
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Paderborn 07 sample
- 4 matches
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SC Paderborn 07
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- SC Paderborn 07 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.