Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Hamburger SV – FC Augsburg
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Hamburger SV
- 42%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Augsburg
- 32%
| Hamburger SV | Draw | FC Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.38 | 3.77 | 3.17 |
- Total goals
- 3.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Hamburger SV
42% Hamburger SV to win
- Attack
- 18th vs 18th
- Hamburger SV attack v FC Augsburg defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 10th
- Hamburger SV defence v FC Augsburg attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.73 vs -0.65
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.79 – 1.55
- Hamburger SV v FC Augsburg
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hamburger SV | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 1.72 · joint 10th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches | 2.30 · 15th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) -0.58 · 11th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 0.99 · 12th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.73 | (better) -0.65 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Hamburger SV clean sheet
- 18%
- Hamburger SV 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.6%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- FC Augsburg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Augsburg
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.